Inflation is coming down in British Columbia, sitting in the low three per cent range and interest rates continue to curb spending in many households. But the trickle down effect of inflation will persist into 2024, based on analysis of price charts for some basic necessities: from rent, mortgage payments and utilities to recreation fees and entertainment.
Here is a look at some of the things British Columbians will pay more for in 2024 — and often above the usual two per cent we had become accustomed to until 2020:
Recreation fees
Want to go for a swim? Then open your wallet a bit wider. Community recreation fee increases will obviously vary by B.C. municipality but you can likely expect an increase of some sort.
The City of Vancouver has increased its recreation fees about six per cent on average but if you’re looking to take a dip it will cost an extra 75 cents (11.3 per cent) more, as single-use adult fees rise from $6.66 to $7.41 (plus tax).
The City of Delta offers relatively affordable pool entrance with an adult costing $5.75 in 2024. But last year an adult would have only paid $5 — a 15 per cent markup to start this year.
Burnaby is now charging $421.92 for its annual adult Be Active Pass, up 8.5 per cent from $388.80 in January 2023.
Already charging some of the highest fees for a swim, Richmond increased its aquatic adult single-use pass just 20 cents, to $7.85 from $7.65 in 2023.
West Vancouver rose its single-use fees 20 cents as well, to $7.65 from $7.45 in 2023.
And in New Westminster, a likewise skate or swim will cost an extra 65 cents, jumping 9.5 per cent from 2023.
Food
Food prices are expected to rise by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent in B.C., right on par with the national average, according to Canada’s Food Price Report 2024. Anticipated changes include 5 to 7 per cent growth in each of bakery, meat and vegetable prices but only a 1 to 3 per cent increase in dairy and fruit.
Dental fees
Have a crown procedure you’re putting off? For the upcoming year, the average suggested fee guide increase for general practice dentists in B.C. is 4.73 per cent (compared to 5.99 per cent for 2023), according to the BC Dental Association. The association says a balanced approach was taken as fees could have gone even higher due to rising costs and struggles to find dental staff thus pushing up wage rates.
Digital and mobile phone costs
Rogers and Fido have already announced their monthly plans will rise by $5 on average in 2024. Meanwhile, Apple TV subscriptions cost $8.99 monthly last January but are now $12.99 monthly starting this year.
Ferries
BC Ferries rates will, on average, go up 3.2 per cent, which will also be the rate of increase through 2028, after the provincial government provided a $500-million subsidy to the ferry company.
Electricity
FortisBC rates increased by 6.74 per cent on Jan. 1. However, customers are going to see a significant 22 per cent decrease in their monthly gas bill as a typical 8.0 GJ monthly bill will lower from $110.88 to $86.48 as the cost of gas has declined over the past year.
BC Hydro has asked for a rate increase of 2.3 per cent this spring, adding about $2 a month to the average residential bill. The decision will soon be made by the BC Utilities Commission.
Housing
Last but certainly not least is housing costs, which will only rise in 2024.
Rent increases in B.C. are capped by the government and for 2024 the highest allowable increase for existing tenants is 3.5 per cent. Those entering or re-entering the rental market will face free market conditions.
Twelve per cent (one in eight) of current mortgagees in B.C. will be renewing their lending agreements within the next 12 months and another 18 per cent of B.C. mortgagees will be renewing in 12 to 18 months.
A person who borrowed $500,000 in summer 2018 on a new five-year term at 2.5 per cent, over a 25-year term, is currently paying $2,239 monthly. Fast forward to today, that person will owe $423,190; should they maintain their amortization period (now 20 years) at a 5.5 per cent interest rate, their monthly payment will spike to $2,896 — a $657 or 29.3 per cent jump in their monthly payment.
House prices
The Royal LePage market survey predicts Greater Vancouver home prices will tick up about three per cent, which is below the national average estimate of 5.5 per cent as Greater Toronto (6.0) and Calgary (8.0) pick up more. Meanwhile, Re/Max Canada forecasts just a two per cent increase in Metro Vancouver prices.
However, TD Bank is less bullish, predicting just a 1.2 per cent increase in home prices in B.C. and 0.5 per cent nationally.
Both Royal Bank and Scotiabank forecast interest rate cuts of 100 basis points by the end of the year, to bring the Bank of Canada overnight rate to 4.0 per cent.
The consensus from banks and real estate stakeholders suggests lowering of rates will spur interest in the housing market and a bump in prices.
“Things are still pretty weak right now, but once we start to see cuts next year, we expect the market will pick up a bit,” said RBC economist Carrie Freestone on Dec. 13.
A TD Canada Trust 2024 housing outlook analysis warns of factors that can lower or heighten those forecasts: “A weaker-than-expected economy poses an important downside risk to the outlook for housing, as it would negatively impact demand and could also precipitate forced selling. Another key risk is that rates will remain higher than forecast, should inflation linger at levels that are higher than we expect. On the opposite end, Canada’s population continues to grow strongly, meaning that housing shortages are likely to persist. This could push prices higher than we anticipate.”
