Don’t expect Vancouver real estate to cool anytime soon: Central 1

The real estate market in Vancouver is going through the roof, and this is expected to...

Rob Kruyt

The real estate market in Vancouver is going through the roof, and this is expected to continue through 2018, according to a Central 1 forecast released April 19.

So far this year, Central 1 said, sales in Metro Vancouver alone have outperformed the credit union’s previous forecast, released in late 2015. Yu said sales will likely increase 22% across the region this year, while the median price grows 13% to $668,000. For detached homes, the median price is forecast to grow 23% to over $1.1 million.

“The dream of a single-family detached home in Metro Vancouver is going to remain just a dream for most buyers,” said Central 1 senior economist Bryan Yu.

A lack of land and soaring prices are leading to increased density, and the number of detached homes is dropping.

“Detached homes make up a shrinking share of the housing stock and increasingly are no longer single-family dwellings as many now have rental units, legal or otherwise,” Yu said.

The report said the impact of foreign ownership will stay concentrated in the luxury market, but “does have ripple effects on the rest of the housing market as high-income households move down-market, lifting prices.”

Last week, the British Columbia Real Estate Association announced a record 12,560 homes were sold across British Columbia in March, shattering the province’s previous record of 11,683 units.

Throughout B.C., both unit sales and home prices are expected to increase over the next couple years, the forecast said. In 2016, resale transactions are set to climb 17% to 109,500 units, while the median price is expected to rise 10% to $473,000. The number of units sold in 2017 is expected to stay around the same, at about 109,000 homes, but prices are expected to grow 4.7%.

In 2018, the median home price in B.C. is forecast to increase a further 3% to reach $508,000.

“Red-hot housing demand in Metro Vancouver and an up cycle on Vancouver Island will continue to underpin provincial housing momentum,” said Yu.

Sales in northern parts of the province will remain slow as a result of low oil and commodity prices hurting local economies.


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