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Canadians ambivalent about NAFTA as Trump takes office

In his first week after he became the 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump effectively killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
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In his first week after he became the 45th president of the United States, Donald Trump effectively killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The incoming administration has signalled its intention to look at trade in the form of bilateral agreements, calling into question the future, and form, of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

On the eve of Trump’s inauguration, Insights West asked Canadians about the trade deal and the negotiations that may arise in the next four years. For starters, only 22% of Canadians believe the country has benefited the most from the agreement. A similar proportion (20%) believe Mexico has done better, but the largest group (32%) believe the United States is the “clear winner” under NAFTA.

There are staggering differences in the ways Canadians look at the benefits the country is getting from NAFTA. For instance, only 16% of Canadians aged 55 and over and 14% of those who voted for the New Democratic Party believe that Canada has benefited more than the other two signatories. In Alberta, which is struggling to get its economy going, the proportion drops to single digits (7%). British Columbia is not too far behind (12%), while Ontarians (27%) and Quebecers (25%) appear to be more satisfied.

In spite of these low numbers, Canadians are not in a hurry to abandon NAFTA. Only 4% of Canadians think Canada should do whatever is necessary to leave the deal, with no demographic group supporting this course of action in double digits. However, a third of Canadians (34%) think Canada should renegotiate the terms of NAFTA, and 40% are fine with the current terms.

The prospect of negotiations with the new United States administration outlines a cautious Canadian public. While 63% of Canadians are “confident” that the federal government will do what’s best for the country when it comes to international trade, most of this confidence is moderate. More than a third of Canadians (37%) have little or no confidence in Ottawa to handle trade discussions – including sizable proportions of groups that traditionally vote Conservative: men (42%), Canadians aged 55 and over (43%%) and Albertans (44%).

British Columbia, as has been the case with its attitude toward other issues related to the Justin Trudeau government, is also restrained, boasting one of the lowest proportions of residents who are “very confident” in the federal government (14%) and the highest who are “somewhat confident” (53%).

Almost a third of the way into his term in office, Prime Minister Trudeau has a favourable rating of 64% across the country (and in British Columbia). President Trump scores a paltry 21% on this question in Canada (and a contemptible 8% in British Columbia). This is a stark contrast with the favourability numbers Barack Obama leaves office with: 70% in Canada and 85% in British Columbia.

The other player in the pending negotiations, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, is not well known to 52% of Canadians, in spite of his visit to Ottawa last year. Canadians know little about the Mexican head of state, and there is much to ponder. The election to pick his successor will take place in July 2018 and will feature independent candidates for the first time. Without a run-off to select a victor if no contender garners more than 50% of the vote – as is the case in most Latin American countries with a presidential system – Mexico’s next president may be selected by about a third of voters or fewer. This would hardly be a position of strength to oversee discussions about a trade agreement.

In the days prior to Trump’s inauguration, talk concentrated on the possibility of NAFTA reverting to its pre-1990s form. Mexico and Canada might be forced to strike individual bilateral deals with the United States, especially after the notion that the so-called “wall” in America’s southern border would be “paid for” by Mexico in the form of tariffs and fees.

When the original Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the United States was discussed in 1988, prime minister Brian Mulroney and president Ronald Reagan had established a close relationship based on ideology and heritage. It would be hard to imagine Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump sharing the stage with the same merriment that their predecessors displayed in the 1980s. Then again, four months prior to their respective victories, few people envisioned either of them in the offices they currently occupy. •

Mario Canseco is vice-president of public affairs at Insights West.