Extending a recent hiring lull, B.C. employment fell by 0.2% (down 3,900 persons) from February in March, albeit with a rebound in full-time job growth.
While the headline drop was insignificant, employment has declined over the past three months with no net gains since the summer. Vancouver census metropolitan area employment fell 0.6% (down 8,700 persons) to lead the retreat, although, like the provincial change, it was statistically insignificant.
The flat employment trend has whittled away the strong year-over-year growth trends observed through most of 2017 to just over 1%.
Nonetheless, the labour market environment remains tight, which is likely one reason for low hiring. B.C.’s unemployment rate remained at 4.7%, which was by far the lowest in the country and below the national average of 5.8%. Labour force participation points to a labour market operating near capacity. Plenty of jobs remain unfilled, with B.C. consistently showing the highest job vacancy rate in the country. Shortages are boosting wage pressures, which rose 5.6% year-over-year.
Central 1 Credit Union forecasts full-year average employment growth of 2.2% this year and 1.4% in 2019 and an unemployment rate of about 4.4%.
Lower Mainland home sales retreated again in March, adding to steep declines observed in recent months as tighter mortgage regulations, higher interest rates and policy uncertainty related to provincial government tax measures weighed on the market. At the same time, upward price pressures continued unabated in the relatively more affordable apartment and townhome market as detached values softened. Policy measures are likely pushing buyers down market and, combined with exceptionally low inventory, putting upward pressure on multi-family units, with a strong labour market, demographic factors and desire for home ownership underpinning demand.
March Multiple Listing Service sales in the Lower Mainland (combined Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission) fell 28% year-over-year to 4,127 units, which was the lowest same-month tally since 2014 and about 10% below the 20-year average.
Market tightness in the apartment and townhome sector continues despite some cooling.
Prices have aligned with these trends. Seasonally adjusted benchmark price indices edged lower in the detached market by 0.8% to $1,358 million, while apartments rose 1.9% to a record $660,570 and townhomes were by 1.3% to $713,800. •
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union
