It is not yet a safe bet, but it looks increasingly likely there will be a provincial election next spring.
Plenty of political and economic signs point to it, and NDP and Liberal strategists alike acknowledge they have for some time seen that as a feasible window.
The political timetable does not make a decision easy. A federal election in the fall of 2019 will drain talent, energy and money out of the system that supports our political parties and thus limits a provincial vote to either a bit sooner or much later.
There are many more pressures to go than to wait.
Few believe the NDP-Green alliance will falter in the months ahead, even as they attempt to jointly craft a climate change action plan bound to brook some division. If there is a possible breaking point, it involves an element of this plan: the BC NDP’s review of liquefied natural gas (LNG) proposals. A final investment decision in LNG is due either late this year or early next, and the Greens seem certain to balk on any measure requiring its support. We could trigger a vote on that basis alone.
But the most practical parting of the ways will come ahead of that resource decision and revolves around the referendum on proportional representation (PR) late this fall.
First off, even though public opinion polls would suggest otherwise, there is a surprising NDP cohort doubting this is a winnable referendum: too little time to generate support for such a large change, too much uncertainty in the options and too many defenders of the status quo.
Helpful to the BC NDP is that the BC Liberals have yet to redefine themselves under Andrew Wilkinson in a way that might earn back the electorate. The publicity on money laundering and ICBC has not helped. A spring vote would likely short-circuit attempts to move aside the vestiges of what the new leadership recognizes was and is a liability.
That being said, a vote for PR would pose a huge hazard for the BC Liberals, in that its conservative cohort would see a political opportunity to elect substantial numbers in any new system that isn’t purely first past the post. Calling an election as your opposition deliberates on its future is a smart strategy.
Regardless of the outcome, the referendum will present the NDP and the Greens with the last real rationale for their co-operation. On so many issues the two parties have distinct visions, but their covenant to govern clouds them.
A minor but notable matter is the possible election municipally of BC NDP MLA Leonard Krog running for mayor in Nanaimo. His resignation upon election in October would at least temporarily make the precarious NDP-Green alliance even more so: 42 Liberals, 40 NDP, three Greens, one Independent speaker and a vacancy awaiting a byelection. Although it is considered a safe NDP seat, it might be shrewd for the New Democrats to simply seek a broader mandate free of the need for Green support.
But the most important factor drawing them to an early campaign is the general state of the economy. It remains healthy in B.C., but many experts note we have defied a typical economic cycle already with small, steady growth for nearly a decade, and they suggest a recession is a logical consequence in the next 12 to 18 months.
No government will want to test the public’s goodwill in such circumstance, but a spring vote would give the NDP an opportunity to present an upbeat election budget upon which to campaign in advance of any economic headwinds. If some of those headwinds can be pinned on Donald Trump, all the better for an NDP campaign.
Much of the misery from the NDP’s new regime of taxes would start hitting British Columbians only after a spring vote, and a combination of a recession and a heavier tax load would make a 2020 or 2021 campaign tougher for them.
A week is an eternity in politics, the saying goes, so do the math of what several months entail. But the signs are getting clearer that we will make another provincial choice next spring. •
Kirk LaPointe is editor-in-chief of Business in Vancouver Media Group and vice-president, editorial, of Glacier Media.
