Non-farm payroll counts continued to rise in July according to the Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours (SEPH). SEPH employment climbed 0.1% or 2,744 positions from June. Upward momentum remained intact though with a year-over-year growth at a robust 3.6%.
Hiring ramped up in a number of sectors – construction with a 5.9% increase (up 8,888 persons), manufacturing (up 4%, or 6,800) and information and culture (up 14%, or 6,612 persons), as well as the public service and education and health services. Manufacturing and export growth, high levels of residential and non-residential investment and population gains have driven hiring.
Year-to-date SEPH employment growth of nearly 4% has far outpaced the more widely watched Labour Force Survey (LFS), which is tracking a weak 1% growth. While deviations are normal given differences in the survey and omission of farm workers and self-employed in SEPH, the trends typically move in tandem, which is not the case of late. Squaring this circle isn’t easy, but possible factors include multiple-job holders, which would lift payroll counts but not LFS employment and growth in the non-B.C. resident workforce. High job vacancy rates, low unemployment and strong hourly wage growth point to a tight labour market.
Average weekly earnings also rose in July, climbing 0.3% to $967, reverting to trend after an early-year pullback. Year-over-year growth reached 3.1%, which was in line with the national gain.
B.C.’s population rose to 4.99 million as of July 1, marking a gain of 69,535 from the previous year. Growth edged up from 1.3% in 2017 to 1.4%. B.C. growth aligned with the national gain but trailed Ontario, Alberta and Prince Edward Island.
International immigration remained the backbone of growth. Excluding net non-permanent residents, net international inflows jumped from 23,595 to 29,983 persons during the year, marking the second-highest count since 2008-09. After detracting from growth in prior years, the number of net non-permanent residents has surged.
Interprovincial migration disappointed with a net gain of 7,799, down from more than 18,830 in 2017 and a cycle peak of 26,570 in 2016. Strengthening economic conditions in other provinces, and relatively higher home prices in B.C., have curtailed the flow to B.C., particularly from Ontario and Alberta.
Population growth is forecast to trend near 1.1% for 2019 on a July 1 basis. The green light for the LNG Canada project will likely provide further lift as construction workers relocate. •
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
