Third-quarter job vacancy data highlighted B.C.’s tight labour market picture, aligning with the province’s exceptionally low unemployment rate and evidence that organizations are finding increased difficulty in filling openings.
Job vacancies in B.C. rose to 110,635 openings in the third quarter, up 19.4% from the same quarter in 2017. This trailed only Quebec and Prince Edward Island, which had gains of more than 30%. However, relative to total occupied and vacant positions, B.C.’s job vacancy rate was highest at 4.8% and rising. Wage momentum also strengthened during the quarter, with the average offered hourly wage rates up 9.2% year-over-year.
Job vacancy rates have been particularly acute in B.C.’s accommodation and food services sector (6.8%), construction (7.9%) and transportation and warehousing (6.9%).
The job vacancy rate in the Lower Mainland-Southwest, which includes Metro Vancouver, reached 5.1%. This was up from 4.3% a year ago and was significantly higher than other larger metro areas. The economic regions of Toronto and Montreal recorded rates of 3.1% while Edmonton and Calgary recorded rates of 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively. Modest employment growth in Metro Vancouver during the year largely reflects labour shortages rather than lack of demand.
While a sign of a strong economy, the labour shortage may be an impediment to future production and economic growth if businesses are forced to slow expansion.
B.C. homebuilders, meanwhile, finished 2018 with a bang as December housing starts jumped to a 12-month high following a recent soft patch. Urban housing starts reached a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 48,117 units, up 28% from November’s 37,617 units. Apartments and townhomes accounted for nearly all of December’s gains. Gains in Victoria and Abbotsford-Mission drove the outsized monthly increase.
Total annual urban-area starts reached 38,439 units. While down 7% from 2017 and the lowest since 2015, levels remained high. Multi-family home sales declined 5% to 29,185 units, while single-detached starts fell 11% to 9,254 units. Single-family homes’ share of total starts has eased to 25% in recent years compared with more than 30% from 2010 to 2015 as developers have adapted to demand for more affordable dwellings.
Metro Vancouver starts declined 11% to 23,404 units. Kelowna starts fell by 29% following a stellar 2017, while Abbotsford-Mission starts declined 39%. Victoria starts increased 11%.•
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
