B.C. employment continued to fall in September, with estimated levels down by 8,400 persons or 0.3% from August to 2.55 million persons.
While statistically insignificant, this marked a fourth consecutive decline and the lowest level since February. The recent downswing has more than retraced the sharp gain in employment observed in May. Year-over-year, employment growth slipped to 1.3%.
September declines were attributed entirely to declines in part-time work (down 3.1% from August), while full-time employment rose 0.4% during the month.
Employment in the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) fell 1.1%, or 16,100 persons to lead the decline, albeit with similar slip in the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Other B.C. metro areas generally posted higher employment.
Both private-sector and public-sector employment declined in September, offset partially by increased self-employment.
Despite this recent slip, B.C.’s labour market remains tight, at least at current wages. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.8% from 5%, reflecting fewer individuals looking for work – specifically younger workers. Labour force participation rates for prime-aged workers remain near record highs, with corresponding unemployment rates at a low 4%. Average employee wages are accelerating, with the latest numbers showing a 5.1% gain in average hourly wages from a year ago, compared to 3.7% in August, and well outstripping inflation
Housing starts surprised again in September, making a mockery of expectations for a significant downturn in response to the contraction in the resale market.
Urban housing starts in B.C. rebounded to a robust annualized pace of 39,550 units in September following an August pullback to 34,950 units. This also marked a 54% increase from a year ago. The CMAs of Vancouver and Victoria led September’s increase.
Vancouver housing starts rose from an annualized 19,830 units in August to 25,020 in September, while Victoria rose from 1,657 to 6,010 units.
While monthly swings are common, urban-area starts rose 15% through the first three quarters to 33,101 units, with apartment and townhome starts up 26%. This partly reflects the number of condo projects planned and in the pipeline before the market downturn, although rental construction remains elevated.
The downturn has been evident in a 20% decline in detached starts. Regionally, housing starts through the first three quarters rose 23% in the Vancouver CMA and doubled in Abbotsford-Mission but fell 17% in Kelowna and 15% in Victoria. •
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
