Softening employment patterns extended into February.
Total employment in the province fell 0.3% or by 6,500 persons in February to 2.54 million workers. Notwithstanding month-to-month fluctuations and February’s insignificant monthly dip, the trend has eroded since May. Levels are down 0.4% from a year ago, and employment has returned to December 2018 levels.
While still among the lowest across Canada, B.C.’s unemployment rate rose half a point to 5%, reflecting the fewer number of employed individuals and an increased number of job seekers. Lower employment spanned many industries. Notably, resource production continued to slide, with employment down 4.7% from January and 22% from a year ago. Manufacturing jobs also declined 2.6% and 4.9% year-over-year. Transportation and warehousing declined 1.8% from January, education fell 2.5% and information/cultural industries fell 1.9%.
Global economic conditions have weakened significantly due to spread of COVID-19, forestry remains in a slump, and rail protests restricted the flow of goods to market. Growth in construction and wholesale/retail trade partially offset losses in other sectors.
While headline numbers were soft, there were some positives. Full-time employment edged higher by 0.2% (3,400 persons), partially offsetting a sharp decline in part-time work. Hours worked bounced back after being limited by severe winter weather in January. Hourly earnings also continued to accelerate, supported by sectors such as technology and reflecting a still-tight labour market.
Uncertainty will be a dominant theme in the near future. Spread of COVID-19 outside China is causing severe disruption to the economy. Travel restrictions are in place in various countries and imposed by organizations, leisure travel demand is down, supply chains have been interrupted and consumer and business confidence has eroded. The Bank of Canada has sharply cut its policy rate, and federal government support is expected to support the economy. Fallout on the labour market will likely concentrate in tourism and commodity-oriented sectors, although a broader ripple through consumer spending may emerge.
B.C. international exports plunged in January, marking a downbeat start to 2020. Dollar-volume goods exports fell 15% from same-month 2019 to $2.99 billion. •
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
