B.C.’s economy and housing markets received a boost during the second quarter as a swell of Canadians moved to the province and international immigration rebounded.
According to the latest Statistics Canada estimate, B.C.’s population reached 5.21 million persons as of July 1, marking a gain of 28,815 residents during the quarter. Year-over-year population growth accelerated to 1.1% (56,077 persons) from 0.7% three months earlier, which was second only to Prince Edward Island among provinces. While four-quarter growth remains soft due to weak expansion in prior quarters, the trend has picked up, and quarterly growth exceeded that of same-quarter 2019.
A surge in interprovincial migration was the key population growth driver. Net inflows increased to 15,290 persons. This was 80% higher than the corresponding quarter in 2020 and 150% above same-quarter 2019. B.C. has found itself in an enviable position as Canadians flocked to the province amid increased remote work opportunities, early retirements and a lighter touch on public health orders compared with other provinces. Expected reopening of post-secondary campuses also lifted inflows. Given typical interprovincial patterns, disproportionate increases were likely observed in the Interior and Vancouver Island markets. B.C. was a beneficiary of inflows from the Prairies and Ontario.
Excluding non-permanent residents, net international immigration reached 10,381 persons, which doubled year-ago levels. While still 15% lower than same-quarter 2019, this compared favourably with previous years. Given relatively tight border restrictions, the rebound in net flows may have reflected transition of temporary residents already in the province to permanent status as the government loosened qualification criteria to meet immigration targets. The flow of net non-permanent residents was positive in the latest quarter at more than 2,500 persons as more students and workers gained entry but remained a third of corresponding quarters in 2018 and 2019, when students and temporary workers fuelled population growth.
Population growth is expected to firm up over the next two years as border restrictions ease, the pandemic fades and immigration targets are boosted. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
