While support for the federal Conservative Party continues to slip in British Columbia, the New Democratic Party is gaining further ground, Insights West announced August 25.
If the federal election were held today, the research company found 41% of decided voters in this province would vote NDP. This is up six percentage points compared with the last poll conducted in May.
The Conservative Party has the support of 22% of B.C. voters; this is down seven percentage points from May. The Liberal party slipped a percentage point to 24% and the Green Party gained two percentage points with 12%.
Support for the NDP is consistent among men and women. This differs from the previous poll, which found women were more likely to vote for that party.
The Conservatives have the most support among voters over age 55 (29%); however, respondents in this age group still preferred the NDP overall (41%).
The Liberal Party has its strongest support in the 35-54 age range, at 27%. These voters still saw the NDP as the most appealing party with 42%.
NDP support is even higher in Metro Vancouver than in the province as a whole, with 43% of decided voters saying they would choose this party. The Liberals are in second place at 25%, followed by the Conservatives at 23%. Vancouver Island respondents showed a significant jump in support for the Green Party, from 20% in May to 32% in this latest survey.
Stephen Harper’s approval rating has slipped seven percentage points to 28% in this most recent poll. NDP leader Tom Mulcair increased three percentage points to 55% and Elizabeth May has gained eight percentage points (52%). Justin Trudeau’s approval rating has increased 5% to 51%.
Mulcair would make the best Prime Minister, according to the poll, with 27% (up five percentage points) of pollsters choosing him over the other candidates. He was followed by Trudeau (20%, up one percentage point), Harper (19%, down eight percentage points) and May (9%, up three percentage points).
“One of the big problems for the Conservative Party is the fact that three-in-ten of their own voters from 2011 are already looking elsewhere,” says Insights West vice-president, public affairs Mario Canseco.
“In addition, both the approval rating and the momentum score for the Conservative leader are significantly lower than what is observed with his rivals.”
These numbers aren’t set in stone, Insights West found, and 42% of those polled across B.C. said they could change their mind by the time the election takes place. The parties with the most steadfast supporters were the Conservatives (71%) and the NDP (63%). Only 49% of respondents who chose Liberal in this poll and 33% of those who selected the Green Party say they are committed to those parties.
When asked what the most important issues were in the upcoming election, 33% chose the economy and jobs, 19% picked government accountability and 12% selected health care.
Insights West conducted this poll between August 20-24 with 815 respondents. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
