The foreign buyers tax and new government mortgage regulations will contribute to declines in both home unit sales and prices across Vancouver in 2017, the British Columbia Real Estate Association announced November 29.
Unit sales will fall 18.5% in Vancouver next year, the BCREA forecasts, saying it expects a total of 34,000 homes to change hands in 2017. This is down from an estimated 41,700 units in 2016.
Prices will fall in 2017 as well, the association predicts. The average home sales price in Vancouver will be $940,000 next year, down 8.7% from $1,030,000 this year.
Declines will also be seen across the province as a whole. The BCREA forecasts unit sales will fall 15.4%, reaching 96,300, down from a record 113,800 this year. The average price will fall from $698,900 to $654,200 – a decrease of 6.4%.
“Housing demand across the province is expected to moderate next year as declining affordability related to rising prices and government policy interventions limit the number of eligible buyers,” said BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir.
“However, while home sales are not expected to repeat this year’s record performance, consumer demand is expected to remain well above the 10-year average.”
The supply of homes across B.C. is expected to increase next year as demand moderates and new home projects are completed, the BCREA said in its report.
“A trend toward more balance in the market will unfold next year and exert less upward pressure on home prices,” the report said. “In addition, a larger contraction in the number of high-end home sales will contribute to moving the aggregate average price statistic lower.”
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