BC Liberal Leader Christy Clark faces four opponents: New Democrats; Greens; the low-amplitude popular boredom with even good leaders tarrying too long; and her party record.
The too-politely named “indirect political contributions,” faux personal donations made by front men and hacks disguising the real, mostly corporate donors, are under investigation by the RCMP. Smoked out by the media – doing superior work in this election starting with the embarrassing “Wild West” characterization laid on by the New York Times – the Liberals sent back $93,000 to 43 donors.
“These individuals and organizations have indicated that they were unaware that reimbursements were not permitted under the act,” intoned a party spokesman.
Forty-three donors. Didn’t know it was wrong. Yet hid their donations. Should the cops be investigating for criminality? Or stupidity that endangers the public weal?
To this rascality should be added the Liberal scandals of the Health Ministry firings, taking the bait of their ancient and indeed insufferable enemies of the BC Teachers’ Federation ending with a humiliating court defeat, and the bizarre eccentricity or whatever of giving its third-largest donor, a car dealers’ association, oversight of disbursing $46 million of public-money incentives. And more.
Same sleaze, different cast: the New Democratic Party’s Soiled Tricks Department outrageously hid the United Steelworkers union’s covertly paying salaries of senior party campaign staff.
NDP leader John Horgan personally peaked early on. Abruptly the “new face” looked old. As if in a contest with the ghost of two decent failed predecessors who meekly let the Liberals run away with the ball, Horgan all but threw punches at small, smiling Clark in their first leadership debate – interrupted her, over-voiced her, then turned to the TV camera with a foolish what-a-good-boy-am-I smile. A disastrous performance. He repelled the unconverted. Possibly some of the converted. In my mother’s phrase, “he out-fumbled himself,” broadly definable as doing his opponents’ work for them.
Much can change, and 48 hours before an election can be the proverbial eternity in politics, but Horgan looks stale and spent. Nevertheless his party is vigorous, tasting victory, but gents named Dave Barrett, Michael Harcourt, Glen Clark and short-service premiers Dan Miller and Ujjal Dosanjh could display the scars of NDP internal bloodletting caused by unions who demand pay for the piper. This kneecapped their premierships. Today the jobs-versus-environment factional divisions, always carefully kept from sight during elections, would be sharper than ever.
Greens chafe indignantly when accused of sawing at a one-string environmental violin. Broadly, they’re on the ruby side of the NDP. Party leader Andrew Weaver, professorial in manner, bespeaks a basic decency and sobriety, historically disabilities in B.C. politics. As for depth, for potential cabinet material – quick, can you recognize any Green candidate other than party leader Andrew Weaver? Can you recognize party leader Andrew Weaver?
In this campaign no abruptly emergent fire-in-the-belly leader, no single policy or platform, has gripped the populace’s lapels or hearts.
As Winston Churchill grumbled, after a brief frowning taste of a dessert: “Take away this pudding. It has no theme.”
What to make of it? Policy nuances and electioneering hot air vanish in the bluntness of the ballot’s X. The job party is the Liberals. With five balanced budgets and B.C.’s national best-weathered economic performance in so-so times, and a timeliness-you-can’t-buy upswing in employment, Christy Clark, warts and all, fronting the developers, cement-pourers and energy industry (and its illusionaries), plus the allies of arriviste working-class property millionaires – augmented by the better-the-devil-you-know weary cynicism of many voters – will win on May 9.
The joker in the deck is the Greens, whose popular vote will rise. But too scattered to win many seats beyond Weaver’s lonely redoubt? A 200% bump – to two seats – could be the election sensation. Think: Liberals 43, NDP 42, Greens 2.
So I’d make a rash side bet on a minority Liberal government, with just a few Greens holding the balance of power. Another election in the fall, anyone?•
Longtime newspaper columnist Trevor Lautens, unfairly guided by his late fortune-telling mother, was a lonely prophet of the Liberals’ 2013 election victory. He’s a Libra.
