No material changes in B.C.’s labour market were recorded in October. Employment changed slightly, and the unemployment rate edged a notch lower to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.
None of the main labour market indicators posted a statistically significant change from last month.Year-to-date employment was up 0.9%, or 22,200 persons, over the same period last year. Full-time employment was up 1.3%, or 25,000 persons, while part-time employment was down 0.5%, or 2,800 persons. The unemployment rate averaged 4.8% this year compared with 5.3% last year.
Notable employment trends so far this year are a 7.5%, or 22,700, increase in health care and social assistance jobs; a 5.5%, or 10,800, increase in professional, scientific and technical jobs; and a 4.4%, or 10,100, rise in construction jobs. Other industries saw small changes from the same period last year.
B.C.’s economy is on pace for employment growth of around 1% this year, down from more than 3% from the previous two years. Slow labour supply growth is a factor holding down employment growth this year, at 0.4%. The labour force participation rate averaged 64.8%, below last year’s trend, and has declined each month since mid-2017. The cyclical upturn in labour supply growth in tandem with the faster job growth of the last two years appears to be over. Aging demographics are one reason for the decline in labour force and job growth, among others. Faster population and wage growth could reverse the trend.
B.C.’s international merchandise trade balance deteriorated during September 2018 with imports rising and exports falling. Merchandise exports declined 5.2% from August, while goods imports rose 1%.
For the year to September, goods exports were up 7.5% at $34.9 billion compared with the same period last year and imports were 13.4% higher at $44.1 billion. B.C.’s main goods exports –forestry and energy – were up 10.2% and down 1.2%, respectively. The mining sector fared better with a 15.1% increase in metal and non-metallic mineral products (mainly aluminum) and a 10.2% increase in metal ores and non-metallic products.
The largest goods import category is consumer goods with a gain of 3% to $12.6 billion year-to-date.
The deficit in international goods trade amounts to $9.1 billion through the first nine months of the year compared with $6.3 billion in the same period last year.
A deficit in international merchandise trade has existed since 2001 and looks to continue for some time yet. A sustained resurgence in exports is required to make a meaningful dent in the trade balance. •
Bryan Yu is deputy chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
