The 2021 federal elections have a few storylines unfolding here in B.C. - despite the national picture apparently set with the Liberal's strong performance in Ontario securing another minority mandate.
One key story is the struggles of federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in his own riding of Burnaby South, where he has survived a scare with a close race against a Liberal candidate.
As of midnight, Singh has finally pulled away from Brea Huang Sami 40%-31% (with 190 out of 191 polling stations reporting) despite the race being within five percentage points for much of the night.
That result contrasted sharply with surrounding NDP strongholds, where Jenny Kwan (Vancouver East), Don Davies (Vancouver Kingsway) and Peter Julian (New Westminster-Burnaby) all winning their ridings early.
The picture for Singh's leadership of the NDP appears equally mixed. Nationally, the NDP won 24 seats in the 2019 federal election, and were leading or elected in 25 seats around midnight this time around.
Will that marginal seat gain be enough to save NDP leader Jagmeet Singh's job?
"That is the mystery that will have to be debated internally in the NDP," political pundit and former NDP operative Bill Tieleman told BIV.
Singh made no mention of his own future in his speech to the nation.
The NDP has a regular leadership-review process that will kick into play.
Tieleman said he endorsed former NDP leader Jack Layton in 2003, when Layton became leader of the party. It took Layton until 2011 to make a breakthrough, and become leader of the opposition.
"Jagmeet Singh, poll after poll after poll, was the most popular leader ... and yet, you have a popular leader, a popular personal leader who hasn't been able to translate that into party support," Tieleman said.
"Ed Broadbent, was in the same way, back in the '80s – an extremely positive leader who did fairly decently."
Tieleman blamed Singh's failings on what he called a Liberal-Conservative mindset in much of the country.
Singh, who made a refrain out of his message to tax the rich during the campaign, was shown on TV early in the evening in a luxury suite at the Pan Pacific Hotel in Vancouver.
"It's better than any one of the houses that [Liberal candidate in Vancouver Granville, Taleeb Noormohamed] is about to flip," Tieleman said with a laugh.
Noormohamed, who was grilled in the media for buying and selling within a year at least 21 properties, remains in a tight race that is likely to be determined when mail-in ballots are counted, starting tomorrow. As of midnight, the Liberal candidate is locked in a virtual dead-heat with NDP candidate Anjali Appadurai, with 34% each at 202/203 polls reporting. At that time, the two candidates were separated by a mere 230 votes.
Meanwhile, the Liberals appear to be outperforming the Conservatives elsewhere in the Lower Mainland. Poll results as of midnight showed Liberal incumbents Jonathan Wilkinson (North Vancouver, 45%), Terry Beech (Burnaby North Seymour, 39%) and Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra, 44%) are all headed back to Ottawa, while long-time Conservative MP Alice Wong (37%) in Richmond Centre was at risk of losing her seat to Liberal candidate Wilson Miao (39%).
In Steveston-Richmond East, another Conservative incumbent, Kenny Chiu, lost his seat to a Liberal candidate -- Parm Bains -- with a 43% to 33% margin with 187/188 polls reporting. Meanwhile, Liberals West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky incumbent Patrick Weiler (34%) also appears to have beaten Conservative candidate John Weston (30%) - who represented the riding from 2008 to 2015.
The NDP also managed take a seat from the Conservatives in the Lower Mainland, as Bonita Zarrillo (37%) defeated Tories incumbent Nelly Shin (32%) in Port Moody-Coquitlam. The Conservatives did manage to maintain a few seats in Metro Vancouver, including incumbent Kerry-Lynne Findlay (43%) once again holding off Liberals challenger Gordie Hogg (38%) in South Surrey-White Rock.
Elsewhere, the Greens' bad night also extended to B.C. While former leader Elizabeth May kept her Saanich-Gulf Islands seat, the same can't be said for Paul Manly (25%), who is trailing both NDP candidate Lisa Marie Barron (29%) and Conservatives candidate Tamara Kronis (28%).
Elections Canada will begin counting the mail-in ballots on Tuesday, which may determine the final results in these close races.
