The 2021 federal election has come and gone - with the Liberals again winning a minority mandate that's eerily similar in seat count when compared to the one they left behind in Ottawa when they called the snap election a month ago.
The following is a live play-by-play of Monday night's results as they reveal themselves to the public, leading to the Liberals minority government mandate.
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4:16 p.m.: The first polls to close in the country - those in Newfoundland - closed roughly 15 minutes ago. Another large swath of Canada, covering the rest of the Atlantic Provinces and a small portion of Quebec, will see their polls close by 4:30 p.m. our time.
Polls here in B.C. close at 7 p.m., and many voting stations have been reporting heavy traffic since this morning.
Also a word of caution to readers hoping for a clear result tonight: A record 1.2 million voters requested mail-in ballots for this election, and those votes will not be counted until Tuesday morning at the earliest. So for those in ridings with tight results, a winner may not be declared until later this week.
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4:55 p.m.: With Atlantic Canada polls now closed, the first called riding (by CBC) goes to the Liberals in St. John's South - Mount Pearl (Seamus O'Regan). The Liberals are also leading in 16 ridings in the region as of 5 p.m., with the Conservatives leading in five and the NDP, one.
The Atlantic Provinces have traditionally been a stronghold for the Liberals, but many are watching closely since the Progressive Conservatives in Nova Scotia (under Tim Houston) scored a major upset by winning the provincial election there in August, forming a Conservative majority there for the first time in more than two decades.
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5:15 p.m.: The Liberals continue to hold an advantage in Atlantic Canada. According to CBC projections, the party has won a second riding in Newfoundland (Avalon) and now leads in 18 ridings. The Conservatives lead in eight, and the NDP now leads in three ridings. Neither has had a seat called in their favour yet.
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5:21 p.m.: The Conservatives have picked its first confirmed seat in Atlantic Canada, called by CTV, in West Nova (Chris d'Entremont). The count now, according to CTV, is 22-8-2 (LIB-CON-NDP) and 23-8-1 according to CBC projections.
A lot of attention is shifting to Fredericton, where incumbent Janica Atwin was elected as part of the Greens in 2019 and then crossed the aisle to join the Liberals (in the controversy surrounding Green leader Annamie Paul and the party's internal turmoil since her election as leader). Atwin's performance may be an indication of whether the Greens' fledgling gains in the Atlantic region over the last two elections can be salvaged - or will the Green vote be divided among other parties in that region.
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5:39 p.m.: Developing: The Conservatives only took away four seats from Atlantic Canada in 2019. If they maintain current trends, they will double that amount to eight - which may be a precursor for other swing regions in Canada.
Another trend is the confirmation that the Greens, as it appears, may have lost clout in the region (with New Brunswick seeing a drop of about 12% for Green candidates). But there are no obvious victors; the voters who chose Green last election but decided to vote elsewhere this time appear to be evenly divided among the Liberals and the NDP on the left, as well as the Conservatives and - yes - the People's Party of Canada on the right.
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6 p.m.: The next big batch of polls closing comes at 6:30 p.m. Vancouver time, when the rest of Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and Northwest Territories start tallying their ballots. Observers can likely start getting a stronger sense of where the election is headed after some numbers roll in from this massive region covering three of the four most populous provinces in Canada.
In the meantime, some observations:
- The aforementioned Fredericton riding has seen about a quarter of its polls reporting, and incumbent Liberal (formerly Green) Janica Atwin now trails Conservative Andrea Johnson by about 350 votes. The NDP and Green candidates each have about 1,000 votes - well within the gap between the two leading candidates, indicating a possible vote-splitting effect.
- The Liberals are currently leading (or have won) 24 seats to the Conservatives' nine. That's a four-seat loss for the Liberals and a five-seat gain for the Tories if the numbers hold. Neither the NDP nor the Greens are leading in any Atlantic ridings.
- The People's Party of Canada is getting more votes than expected in the region, with 4.4% of the votes counted so far - almost doubling the Greens' 2.5% and at about a quarter of the NDP's 17.5%.
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6:30 p.m.: So far, the seat change in Atlantic Canada is Liberals down by three and Conservatives up by five.
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6:45 p.m.: The first polls from Quebec and Ontario have changed the numbers significantly in terms of the ridings count for each party. The Liberals are now leading or have won 38 seats - including a number of ridings in Northern Ontario where they currently lead. The Conservatives' seat count is 16, and the Bloc Quebecois now lead in four ridings.
The NDP and the Greens each lead in one riding as of now, and the PPC remains without any ridings where they lead despite a higher number of votes.
In separate news, CTV is now showing a polling station in Vaughn, Ont. - and the lone line of voters can be seen snaking out of the building and into the parking lot. The polls there have now closed, but anyone who were in line before the deadline would be allowed to vote. Translation: It may be a while yet before we get the full picture from the ballots cast today, let alone the mail-in ballots mentioned earlier.
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6:54 p.m.: As the attention shifts to other parts of the country, it should be noted that it appears neither the NDP nor the Greens were able to pick up or maintain a seat in Atlantic Canada. While the region was always expected to be dominated by the Liberals and the Conservatives, the fact that the NDP was not able maintain ridings like St. John's East may be alarming as a trends that may develop in the rest of the country.
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7:05 p.m.: The Liberals continue to lead in terms of ridings where the party is ahead, with 87 ridings currently in the Grits' fold. Meanwhile, the Tories are leading or have won in 43 ridings, with the Bloc Quebecois at 16 and the NDP at 15. The Greens continue to lead in only one riding - Gatineau, across the river from the national capital of Ottawa (and, incidentally, the site of the consortium English and French debates two weeks ago).
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7:10 p.m: Poof! And just like that, the Green lead is gone in Gatineau - overtaken by the Liberals.
The count is now 104-53-21-15 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP).
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7:14 p.m: Has Conservative leader Erin O'Toole's move to the centre cost the Tories votes? That is what some analysts are speculating as the PPC (led by former Tories leadership contender Maxime Bernier) has garnered a surprisingly high number of votes.
The PPC is maintaining a 4.5% share of the overall popular vote, significantly higher than the Greens (or the regionalized Bloc, for that matter). It may have already cost the Conservatives a few ridings in Atlantic Canada where the margins of Liberal leads over Tories candidates fall within the amount of votes received by PPC candidates. In others where no PPC candidates ran, the Conservative candidate had a much smoother path to the lead.
It will be interesting to see if the PPC can maintain its vote-splitting of the right as the ballot count moves West.
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7:19 p.m.: By the way, polls have now closed here in B.C., and CTV has just called the election for the Liberals - albeit without a confirmation of whether it'd be a minority government as expected or a surprising majority.
CTV analysts say that the Liberals are outperforming 2019 in Quebec and Ontario, benefitting from a collapse of the Greens. The CBC has followed suit and called the election for the Liberals as well at 7:26 p.m.
At this moment, the ridings count is 134-76-28-18-1 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP-GRN) according to CBC and 136-78-29-19-1 from CTV.
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7:37 p.m.: Liberals leader Justin Trudeau has been criticized for calling an election while the country was still dealing with a pandemic, and the results are now being seen at polling stations. Due to social distancing requirements and, in some cases, a lack of volunteers and staff, some polling stations have been backlogged with voters still waiting to get into polling stations.
Though polls are officially closed, Elections Canada says that those were in line when the polls closed will still be allowed in to cast their vote.
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7:39 p.m.: So we are back to a Liberals minority government. CTV made the projection first, putting the government that was in place before the election back in Ottawa. It is still unclear what the final seat makeup will look like - as it stands, it is 144-118-28-26-2 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP-GRN).
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7:45 p.m.: Mario Canseco, president of Research Co. polling company, said expectations were that there would be up to five million mail-in votes. But with only one million to count, it made it easier for the networks to call the election for the Liberals, once they crossed the 140-seat threshold.
"If you wanted the Conservatives to be competitive and to try to catch up, they should have been at around 120 seats, and they're around 97, 98," he said. "There's no way to catch up."
"With the NDP and the Bloc taking 50 seats, the Conservatives cannot catch the Liberals as far as seats are concerned."
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7:48 p.m.: The aforementioned concerns surrounding the NDP not winning a seat in Atlantic Canada has vanished. As of this moment, the Orange is actually the party that has gained the most ridings in this election from 2019 - with a current plus/minus of +5. The Conservatives appeared to have gained some, but not nearly enough at +2. The Liberals are at -2.
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8:13 p.m.: The 2019 campaign ended with a seat tally of 157-121-32-24-3 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP-GRN). As of this moment, the 2021 campaign has a seat tally of 155-122-29-29-2. Most commentators have pointed out there's almost no difference between those two counts.
The numbers could spell trouble from both Trudeau and O'Toole. Trudeau was clearly positioning for a majority government, although given how poorly the campaign kicked off for the Liberals, the fact that they won the mandate for a minority government could be seen as a nice consolation win.
O'Toole, meanwhile, will likely face the same questions that faced former Tories leader Andrew Scheer after 2019; despite gaining seats and (likely, in O'Toole's case) winning the popular vote, the Conservatives punted on Scheer after 2019. Will O'Toole face the same fate fore not changing enough votes in Ontario?
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, in comparison, appear safe in their posts after stronger-than-expected performances. And Green leader Paul will likely lose again in Toronto Centre. Where will the Greens go after this collapse?
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8:22 p.m.: The first B.C. riding called is Vancouver East, won by NDP's Jenny Kwan. It comes a full hour after media analysts called the election for the Liberals.
Meanwhile, the CBC is reporting that the polling station at UBC still has 3-4 hours of wait time for voters who were in line by the poll closing time of 7 p.m.
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8:26 p.m.: "At this point it looks like the Conservatives will more or less end the evening where they were," said Allan Tupper, a political science professor at University of BC. "And the Liberals too. The NDP might be up a little bit, not in vote but it seats. At this point it looks simply like we've got a repeat performance (of 2019)."
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9:28 p.m.: Green Party Leader Annamie Paul has failed to win a seat in Parliament. Poll results show the riding of Toronto Centre going to the Liberals, with Paul trailing the Conservatives and New Democrats at fourth place.
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9:36 p.m.: In his concession speech, O'Toole showed no signs of wanting to step down in light of another election where the Tories fell short of unseating the Liberals.
He raised the specter of another election, noting Trudeau's non-committal to maintaining the government elected this time to a full four-year term. O'Toole said he will be ready, while doubling down on the moderate, centrist path he has taken since winning the leadership of the Conservatives.
"Let’s build it up," he told his supporters in Ontario. "In the months ahead, as Mr. Trudeau gears up for another election... we need to invited more Canadians to take another look at the Conservative Party."
O'Toole also doubled-down on his centrist policies, including the call to draw more Tories support from the LGBTQ, immigrant and minority communities - as well as a promise to fight for getting drinking water to all Indigenous communities as a basic human right.
"We must hold fast to the courage to change, the courage to grow," he told the Conservative crowd. "We have to show more Canadians they are welcome to the Conservative Party of Canada."
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10 p.m.: NDP leader Singh gave a modest speech in Vancouver Monday evening after his victory in Burnaby South was confirmed. Singh, appearing on stage with his pregnant wife, offered Canadians the same lines he delivered during the election campaign: A promise to tax the rich and support workers, families and First Nations people.
Singh gave no indication whether there may be a leadership race within the party or not. The NDP made modest gains - projections currently show the party gaining three seats, from 24 to 27 - but remains well off the 2011 highs under the late Jack Layton (103 seats) or even the 2015 numbers under Thomas Mulcair (44).
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10:30 p.m.:
In a muted victory speech, Trudeau – who will be returning as prime minister – offered no hints about whether he is planning another snap election after failing to gain majority that was the Liberals’ aim.
Surrounded by family, Trudeau again defended his decision to call the snap election, calling this evening a showing of “the strength of our [Canada’s] democratic institutions.”
Trudeau also appears to extend an olive branch to supporters of other parties, saying that he and the Liberal minority government will “stand up” for Canadians, even if they did not vote for the Grits in this vote.
“No matter how you voted... I hear you,” he said. “I hear you when you said we can only move forward when no one is left behind.”
Other than that, however, Trudeau did little other than thank his family and his supporters and campaign workers while offering a general comment on looking forward to the future – a future with another Liberal minority government.
“Let us not forget the past... but still look forward to the future,” Trudeau said in closing. “Let us seize promise of a brand new day.”
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10:35 p.m.: Political pundit and former NDP operative Bill Tieleman told BIV that the virtual mirror-image results of the 2019 and 2021 elections prove that no election was needed.
"This is a massive waste of money and time and resources to get us back to where we were before," he said.
Tieleman called the election "disheartening," not only because of the cost, but because it took place during a pandemic, and put the public's health at risk.
"What a colossal waste," he said.
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Midnight.: And that's a wrap for the night. Final tally as we sign off: 158-119-34-25-2 (LIB-CON-BQ-NDP-GRN), remarkably similar to the 2019 results (157-121-32-24-3). There are still close races to be decided, including one here in Vancouver-Granville. But that's unlikely to be called this evening.
For the coming weeks, it will be interesting to follow each party's leadership status as none of the party really gained what they were looking for in the election: The Liberals did not win majority, the Conservatives did not win the vote, the NDP and the Bloc did not make major gains, and the Green leader lost her bid for a seat again.
