B.C.’s labour market continued to improve through September although the latest details pointed to a softer underbelly to solid headline gains.
Total employment rose by another 12,300 persons or 0.5% compared with a 0.8% national increase. However, the latest gain owed entirely to a rise in part-time work as full-time employment was flat.
Nevertheless, B.C continued to outpace its provincial peers with total employment 1.5% higher than pre-pandemic February 2020.
B.C. full-time employment is roughly in line with February 2020; part-time employment is up 10%. Metro Vancouver employment comparatively underperformed during the latest month as employment fell 0.3% but rose 10% year over year. The latter compares with a 6.1% increase provincially.
On an industry basis, patterns were mixed. Hiring in services sectors outperformed with a 0.6% increase. Education jumped 17,300 persons or 9.8% to drive the net gain, while the election likely boosted public administration (up 9,900 persons or 7.5%). Return to offices likely lifted business support services (up 4.3%). Health care and social assistance employment was down 13,800 persons or 3.7%.
The latest employment gain pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9%, marking the first sub-6% reading since the pandemic began. Metro Vancouver’s rate came in at 6.2%. That said, this compares with 5% pre-pandemic.
On the housing front, Lower Mainland Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales continued to normalize but remained remarkably firm.
MLS sales in the Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission area reached 4,980 units, marking a 14.8% year-over-year decline and the first 12-month drop since May 2020. The sales trend has tumbled since March, but September sales were still 37% above both the same-month 2019 performance and the 2010-19 September average.
Strong housing demand persists despite a sharp deterioration in housing affordability. Pervasiveness of remote and hybrid work models continues to support demand as households seek homes and space to meet dual needs. Indeed, households may be willing to allocate greater income shares to housing as a result. Meanwhile, investor demand has also been stoked by a tight rental market, potential for capital appreciation given low inventory and demand for an inflation hedge. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
