B.C.’s labour market continued to improve through October as the economy added jobs at a steady clip, while the jobless rate continued to fall.
Employment rose 0.4% or 10,400 persons during the month. This compared with a 0.2% increase nationally. While the monthly increase was not particularly noteworthy, the economy added jobs for a third straight month to exceed pre-pandemic February 2020 by about 2% – the best showing among provinces.
Moreover, the details were constructive. Full-time employment surged 1.9%, and, based on our calculation, seasonally adjusted hours worked increased more than 1.5%. Growth was driven by an increase of 20,000 persons (5%) in wholesale and retail trade, which more than offset losses in professional/technical services, business support and hospitality.
Labour market slack continued to narrow. Employment growth outpaced labour force expansion to drive the unemployment rate down to 5.6% – the lowest rate during the pandemic and not too far from the 5.1% seen in February 2020. Moreover, labour force participation rates have fully recovered, and the employment-to-population ratio has returned to just short of pre-pandemic levels. This is consistent with signs of labour shortages in the economy, with job vacancy rate data pegging B.C. as the tightest labour market among provinces. Average hourly earnings rose 3.3% year over year, although pandemic effects on employment composition continues to inflate these values.
Metro Vancouver underperformed the rest of the province as employment fell 0.3%, although the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8% from 6.2%.
B.C.’s labour market continues to recover at a solid pace, and this should continue as social interactions continue to normalize, businesses reinvest and international tourism picks up steam. Recent changes to federal pandemic programs like wage and rent subsidies as well as income benefits will likely impact both demand for workers and labour participation rates.
The Lower Mainland housing market remained very active through October as buyers continued to flood the market and overwhelm new and existing inventory. Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission area sales reached 5,415 units. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
