The transportation electrification inflection point might be at the next freeway off-ramp, but do we have the horsepower to get there as quickly as some advocates say we can or we must?
Do we have the right fuel in the technology tank to go the distance, and, perhaps, more importantly, do we have the correct data to ensure that we are heading in the right direction?
For the green-at-all-costs crowd, the answers to all of the above are disappointingly not black and white.
It is easy to demand action be taken; it is far more difficult to decide which action to take, who needs to take it and when it should be taken.
Consider what appears to be the simple matter of switching gas-powered cars to electric vehicles (EVs).
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting spike in global oil prices have sparked a parallel spike in EV demand.
Complication 1: Supply cannot meet demand, in part because of the pandemic’s supply chain disruption.
Complication 2: Only around 20 per cent of U.S. utility-scale electricity comes from renewable energy. So EV contributions to the green equation vary widely from country to country.
Complication 3: Cost. Not just for consumers. Electrification conversion will be expensive for the entire supply chain.
For example, container ship owners and operators face a multitrillion-dollar decarbonization bill, even though maritime shipping’s contribution to transportation’s global carbon dioxide emissions is approximately 11 per cent compared with road transportation’s 75 per cent.
While most major ocean carrier companies are committed to achieving net-zero CO2 operations, they won’t solely by themselves be able to tackle the magnitude of costs and supply chain complications they face.
As with consumers, businesses and governments hoping to find the right electrification off-ramp, no one is going to find it alone, and no one is going to get there without shouldering a significant cost.
