Consistent with the national pattern, small-business confidence in B.C. continued to recover in March.
Short-term optimism (three months) rose 4.4 points to 51 points, marking the highest level since October 2021, suggesting that on net, businesses expect a mild improvement in coming months. Small businesses seemed to be more confident in their short-term business activities amid easing of provincial public health restrictions. That said, the long-term outlook (12 months) remained unchanged at 59.8 points for the third consecutive month, suggesting uncertainties amid elevated inflation, the crisis in Ukraine and labour market strains.
The index is measured on a scale of 0 to 100, and any reading over 50 points means most small businesses expect their performance to be stronger in the coming year. As pre-entry test requirements for fully vaccinated travellers lifted on April 1, economic and social activities are likely to rebound more in B.C., a popular travel destination historically. That said, business owners are also expecting higher costs, especially on fuel, energy and wages, which might affect their business optimism.
Non-farm payroll hiring continued to expand in B.C. through January with a strong gain of 0.9 per cent month over month, or over 22,000 net new hires. Overall hiring in B.C. has expanded now for eight consecutive months, largely from an equally impressive eight-month run of hiring in services.
Services-sector hiring was led by real estate and rental and leasing (up 3.5 per cent month over month), education (up one per cent), administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (up 1.8 per cent), and finance and insurance (up 0.8 per cent), offsetting job losses in arts, entertainment and recreation (down 2.5 per cent) where the Omicron wave likely hampered activity.
B.C.’s job market is fully recovered although gains have been uneven. Since the start of the pandemic, overall non-farm payroll hiring is up 1.8 per cent, with the goods and services sector up 4.2 per cent and one per cent respectively. Fixed-weight index average weekly earnings increased 0.3 per cent month-over-month in January and 2.9 per cent year-over-year. •
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
