B.C. managed to eke out further employment gains in June as a rise in job seekers allowed employers to fill a portion of the ballooning number of vacant positions in the province.
Total employment rose by a solid 6,100 persons or 0.2 per cent from May compared with a 0.2 per cent decline nationwide. With the latest increase, B.C. employment was nearly four per cent higher than pre-pandemic February 2020 compared with 2.4 per cent nationally.
Full-time hiring remained firm with a 0.4 per cent increase that offset a 0.5 per cent decline in part-time work. While firms are adjusting to a tight labour market by transitioning part-time workers to full-time employment where possible, economic growth is broadly driving increased employment opportunities and entrepreneurship to lift self-employment.
With the latest employment gain, B.C.’s labour market remained tight. The unemployment rate nudged up to 4.6 per cent from May’s 4.5 per cent, but remained below the national average. Only Quebec, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were lower. High labour force participation and employment rates that are in line with pre-pandemic levels signal an economy operating at capacity. A high job-vacancy rate exceeding six per cent and inflation pass through is showing signs of lifting wages, which came in at 3.6 per cent year to year.
Going forward, higher interest rates moderate sectors like housing and big-ticket spending, but a lift in tourism, major project construction and higher investment in commodity sectors should keep things tight.
Sellers are waxing nostalgic for conditions seen only six months ago. Higher mortgage rates and deteriorating market sentiment caused Lower Mainland housing activity to swoon in June, pushing sales and prices lower. Sales in the combined Metro Vancouver and Abbotsford-Mission real estate board area reached 3,689 units, down nearly 39 per cent from a year ago. While partly owing to a base year effect from robust year-ago sales, levels were 25 per cent below the same month average from 2010-19.
Seasonally adjusted active listings have risen 25 per cent since the end of 2021 as declining sales outpaced a slowdown in new listings.
The sales-to-active listings ratio, an indicator of demand and supply, softened to the lowest level in two years to 22 per cent, and while in a range typically aligned with a balanced market, the quick climbdown suggests a market that is already favouring buyers.•
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.
