- Incumbent: Sonia Furstenau (Green | 2017)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Debra Toporowski
- Conservative: John Koury
- Green: Cammy Lockwood
- Independent: Jon Coleman
- Independent: Eden Haythornthwaite
- Results:
- NDP – 45%
- Green – 39%
- Liberal – 16%
- Description:
- Currently held by Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau, her decision not to seek re-election here came as a shock to all. When considering redistribution, however, perhaps it shouldn’t have been.
- The riding of Cowichan Valley has been reconstituted and become much less Green-friendly. In fact, the BCNDP nominally won the riding under its new boundaries! Southern, Green-friendly areas of the CVRD have been ceded to the new riding of Juan de Fuca-Malahat - including Sonia Furstenau’s home and cause célèbre, Shawinigan Lake. Hitting almost 60% and netting almost her entire margin of victory there in 2020, Furstenau decided to seek greener pastures elsewhere.
- The sprawling district is anchored by the District Municipality of North Cowichan. Both the BCNDP’s Debra Toprowoski and the Conservatives’ John Koury served as district councillors there, while Green candidate Cammy Lockwood lives just a stone’s throw away in Cobble Hill.
- Toporowski is a councillor for the Cowichan Tribes, and could get an extra boost in turnout from the 2,600-strong community. Ex-United candidate Jon Coleman could throw a spanner in the works of that though - he’s a contractor and Tribes member who was snubbed by the government in his bid for the new Duncan Hospital. Koury will be hoping to build on past federal support in Maple Bay, around Somenos and Quamichan Lake, as well as pry deindustrializing mill towns like Crofton away from the New Democrats. Finally, Lockwood must hold onto residual Green strength in the southern fringe of the riding around Cowichan Bay.
- Much like in other ridings across Vancouver Island, the strength of the Green vote could prove decisive in determining who emerges victorious. Toporowski will be banking on the riding’s Dipper history to return it to the orange column, Lockwood will slip in Green-NDP swing communities like Duncan since she has nowhere near Furstenau’s profile, and Koury hopes to be third time lucky by taking advantage of rural trends favouring the right as the NDP comes down from its pandemic-era high on the Island.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
