- Incumbent: Ian Paton (Conservative | 2017)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Jesse McCormick
- Conservative: Ian Paton
- 2020 Results:
- Liberal – 51%
- NDP – 35%
- Green – 14%
- Description:
- One of the largest ridings in the Lower Mainland, Delta South is likely to deliver one of the largest margins of victory in the region as well. After watching his poll numbers steadily sink as the United candidate for the riding, Ian Paton received a lifeline from John Rustad after Falcon folded his tent, joining the Conservative team just days after hosting the Beans and Jeans fundraiser for BC United at their family farm.
- Ian Paton does the best around the rural farms on the eastern half of the riding. His farm is located around there, and he wins upwards of 70% of the vote in those polls. The NDP has never won Delta since it was split in half - most opposition to the BC Liberals coalesced around independent Vicki Huntington. After she retired in 2017, Paton took the district with ease, all the while the NDP was still mired in third.
- This, perhaps, will be the first true “normal” election fought in Delta South since 1996 - and all it took was a landslide wipeout, two-terms of a quirky independent, and the collapse of a governing party to get there. Ladner is the stronger of the two main municipalities for the NDP, but even that one was lost 50-38 in 2020, Asliver of polls south of 64 Avenue have been cut off from Kahlon’s old Delta North and attached to Delta South. It is worth noting though, they’re around Sunshine Hill, which has historically been better for the BC Liberals. Finally, Tsawassen was a comfortable 22-point win for Paton in 2020, and the only thing of note is the Greens taking a robust 18%.
- Translink bus driver Jesse McCormick faces an uphill battle at best here for the NDP. While there may be some pockets of the strength for the NDP, the only saving grace as far as future potential for them goes may be where the Green vote turns. Paton should be a strong favourite to win a third term.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
