- Incumbent: Josie Osborne (NDP | 2020)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Josie Osborne
- Conservative: Adam Hayduk
- Green: Ross Reid
- Results:
- NDP – 58%
- Green – 20%
- Liberal – 18%
- Conservative – 3%
- Description:
- Running between both coasts of Vancouver Island, the communities that constitute Mid Island-Pacific Rim have been quite comfortably NDP since it took back official party status in 2005. With a tumultuous campaign and shifting allegiances, however, keep an eye on if and where NDP strength erodes.
- The riding is anchored by the mill town of Port Alberni, which has a long history of blue-collar, union jobs in the forestry sector. Recent closures have hit the city hard though, and problems of public disorder are on the rise. While the NDP has declined from its peak in the mid-2000s where Scott Fraser would win a good 60% of the vote, the city has still remained relatively loyal to its labour heritage compared to other towns across Vancouver Island. Its size and location made it a natural choice to be a regional hub for government services and left-leaning public sector workers as well.
- This election may test that. Conservative leader John Rustad got his start in the private sector by working in forestry, and knows the issues quite well. If he strikes a chord with voters here on resource management, Port Alberni resident and Conservative candidate Adam Hayduk could ride the wave of political realignment into Victoria.
- If Port Alberni does turn against the NDP, first-term MLA Josie Osborne will have to fall back upon other settlements to hold off the Conservatives. First elected as Mayor of Tofino in 2013 as a Green, Osborne was unopposed in her 2014 re-election bid, then won 86% of the vote in 2018 for a second term. If Port Alberni becomes more competitive, she’ll have to fall back on the west coast of the riding, dotted with tourist towns like Tofino and Ucluelet and Indigenous reserves in order to hold off the Conservatives.
- Complicating that will be the Greens. They’ve nominated documentary filmmaker Ross Reid, a resident of Ucluelet to carry their banner, and the party does have some strength in the riding. To make a strong showing, Reid will have to stay competitive with the NDP in the aforementioned tourist towns, and build on growing Green strength on the eastern side of the riding. Breaking 20% in Cumberland and coming close to winning Denman and Hornby Island is certainly nothing to scoff at.
- All in all, the riding may be foreshadowing the growing realignment of Vancouver Island north of the CRD in years to come. Tourist towns and artsy islands could become dogfights between the Greens and the NDP, while resource towns like Port Alberni could snap right at breakneck speed. With its history in eco-activism dating all the way back to the War in the Woods over forestry management, Osborne will have to tread carefully.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
