- Incumbent: Murray Rankin (NDP | 2020)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Diana Gibson
- Conservative: Stephen Andrew
- Green: Lisa Gunderson
- Results:
- NDP – 51%
- Green – 26%
- Liberal – 23%
- Description:
- Don’t let the NDP’s dominating 2020 win in the riding fool you - Oak Bay-Gordon Head is not natural Dipper turf. It’s only gone NDP thrice in its history - first in a 1989 by-election during the depths of Bill Vander Zalm’s popularity, then in the 1991 general election as the BC Liberals and Social Credit cleaved the free enterprise vote in twain, and finally in 2020 as the rally around the flag pushed the NDP to an unprecedented provincewide high. Even then, it took a former MP throwing his hat in the ring and the endorsement of incumbent independent MLA and former Green leader Andrew Weaver to seal the deal. In this riding, your personal appeal matters.
- This election, the New Democrats will have more headwinds blowing in their direction. With Murray Rankin bowing out of elected politics after a decade in office, consultant and former non-profit director Diana Gibson emerged as the nominee for the riding after a spirited challenge from former Victoria Chamber of Commerce Director Catherine Holt. Her organizing roots lie in the neighbourhood of Gonzales, and her bid was helped by her husband - city councillor Dave Thompson. Now, Gibson is turning to face the twin threats of the Greens and the Conservatives.
- While the BC Greens may not be giving it their all across the province (see: 24/93 ridings without a candidate), they certainly are hoping to take this riding back. They were caught off guard when Horgan called a snap election just weeks after Furstenau won the leadership, and Weaver’s falling out and subsequent retirement as an MLA didn’t exactly help things. This time around, they’ve struck early, nominating Dr. Lisa Gunderson all the way back in 2023.
- An equity consultant, Gunderson has strong roots in the Saanich portion of the riding. Her kids went to school in Gordon Head, and she served on the PTA there. Furthermore, the Greens are well organized and have been knocking on doors for months. What may complicate the Greens’ claim to the mantle of change is the defection of the very candidate who led their 2013 breakthrough.
- Fielding a candidate for the first time since their 2013 disaster, the BC Conservatives received an extra shot in the arm on top of the provincewide wave thanks to a very disgruntled Andrew Weaver - who initially flirted with a run before endorsing former Victoria city councillor and mayoral candidate Stephen Andrew. Once a moderate New Democrat, Andrew has evolved over the past decade into a more populist, tough-on-crime politician. While his name recognition will help, Oak Bay-Gordon Head isn’t the stodgy old bastion of old money localism it once was.
- The riding can be broken down into 3 main portions: a small part of Victoria, the municipality of Oak Bay, and a collection of neighbourhoods from the District of Saanich. In Victoria, Gonzales and South Jubilee are middle-class, single family home neighbourhoods that are usually NDP but have flirted with the Greens in the past. Oak Bay’s rep for being “more English than England” may be more a myth than a matter of fact at this point too. Stereotyped as NIMBY utopia since the housing crisis shot to prominence, some younger families have moved in recently and the council has gradually become more pro-development. The small pocket of Uplands remains just as conservative as ever though.
- What has really shaken things up is Saanich. Upzoning in recent years has massively turbocharged population growth in its neighbourhoods, helped by the upgrades in infrastructure as well. University Heights and Gordon Head have both seen students looking for a place near campus to rent on top of the influx of new families, further adding to its left lean. While the Conservatives may have some strength in highly affluent Ten Mile Point, the only question is whether the Greens or the New Democrats take this part of town.
- For Gibson to win, she’ll have to hold onto Rankin’s old support - but given how sweeping it was, it may be difficult to pin down replicable strength. Her base is in the Victoria neighbourhoods in the riding, but she’ll need Oak Bay and parts of Saanich in Mt. Tolmie and Gordon Head to seal the deal. Gunderson has to sweep the beachside community of Cadboro Bay and rebuild Green strength in Oak Bay and sway students in Gordon Head. Finally, Andrew will have to hope for a more class-based coalition and hope his profile is seen as moderate enough for the “too rich to vote NDP, too smart to vote Conservative” parts of the riding. Once again an open seat, this riding will be one to watch on election night.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
