- Incumbent: Lana Popham (NDP | 2009)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Lana Popham
- Conservative: Adam Kubel
- Green: Ned Taylor
- Results:
- NDP – 54%
- Liberal – 24%
- Green – 22%
- Description:
- An NDP seat since the Carole James comeback of 2005, Saanich South has never quite been a safe seat for the Dippers. Businesswoman Lana Popham scraped into office in this patch of suburbia by a mere 2 points over the BC Liberals in 2009, slowly growing her personal vote over the next few elections as her margins ballooned into the double digits.
- This round may not be as easy as the last one. While Saanich South is a government town, pockets of weakness exist for the longtime MLA. While the NDP is strong around neighbourhoods west of the Port Bay Highway like Strawberry Vale and Mount View, areas east of the Highway are more of a battleground. Broadmead is an archetypical rich suburban neighbourhood, homeowners’ association and all, while Cordova Bay to the north is right-leaning but has more of the beachside community energy.
- The Conservatives will be hoping to take the aforementioned two neighbourhoods for themselves and capitalize on their small-c nature. However, the Conservatives have a relatively unknown candidate in businessman Adam Kubel, and could finish third thanks to a strong Green campaign.
- If Ned Taylor surprises on election night, it won’t be due to a surplus of investment. The Green wunderkind was elected to Saanich Council as its youngest ever member at the age of 19, and came equipped with a strong ground game and name recognition from his 4 years on council. While he’ll want to draw support from orphaned BC Liberals in wealthier neighbourhoods like Cordova Bay who might be alienated by the Conservatives’ right-wing edge, the real breakthrough he seeks is in traditional NDP turf in Lake Hill and Strawberry Vale. The latter would really set him up for a 2028 run especially if Popham retires.
- For Popham, the path to a fourth term runs through every part of the riding. In Cordova Bay, there may be BC Liberal supporters turned off by Rustad’s harder edge who could go to the New Democrats or the Greens. In leftier areas, she could squeeze the left by stressing the need to keep out the right. While this may be a return to the more competitive past for Saanich South, who comes second this time will be something to watch.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
