When Green leader Sonia Furstenau announced she was yet again switching ridings, nobody in the press gallery expected her next target to be Victoria-Beacon Hill of all places. A longtime NDP stronghold since then-leader Carole James retook it in 2005, Furstenau’s move sets up a clash of two progressive firebrands in the heart of Victoria.
Excluding Vic West, Beacon Hill is home to everything in BC’s capital city that’s south of Bay Street and west of Richmond Avenue. This isn’t the first rodeo for a Green leader here - Jane Sterk finished a respectable second here in 2013. While 34% is a healthy showing by any means, it just wasn’t enough to take out Carole James, who almost won a majority of the vote.
Furstenau is banking on progressive discontent over issues such as involuntary treatment, old growth, and Site C. This is hipster central, after all, and the Greens have shown strength here before. Upper middle class Fairfield (where she’s moved to) and lower-income, artsy and student populated parts of Fernwood will be the neighbourhoods to watch. However, Lore isn’t letting things go without a fight. She has traditionally NDP support in areas like downtown, James Bay, and North Park that she can count on and has remained present as an MLA. As the riding develops, she’ll have to explain how the provincial government plans to accommodate growth with new amenities and infrastructure.
The riding isn’t completely lefty though. Conservative lawyer Tim Thielmann has ran a high-profile campaign targeting the growth of public disorder in the downtown, and the issue has touched a nerve in surrounding neighbourhoods where the province and city council want to place more supportive services. While he’ll do better than the BC Liberals’ rock bottom 2020, showing and will fare well in older communities like the old money bastion of Rockland and senior condos around James Bay, the riding is simply becoming more and more left-wing. Even in Rockland, a lot of those mansions are now being rented out as suites for young professionals in the city.
Ultimately, this will likely be a two-horse race between the New Democrats and the Greens. Furstenau hopes to build off of a strong debate performance and convince voters to go with their heart, while Lore’s path to victory has been complicated by her leader’s backtracking on the carbon tax. This race might end up being a whole lot of sound and fury from all involved, but by election day, it’ll certainly be deafening.
