- Incumbent: Karin Kirkpatrick (United | 2020)
- Candidates:
- NDP: Sara Eftekhar
- Conservative: Lynne Block
- Green: Archie Kaario
- Independent: Karin Kirkpatrick
- 2020 Results:
- Liberal – 54%
- NDP – 29%
- Green – 16%
- Description:
- Originally shaping up to be a snoozefest, the race to represent West Vancouver-Capilano got a lot more interesting with the re-entry of incumbent United MLA Karin Kirkpatrick, enraged at Kevin Falcon’s betrayal of the socially liberal, fiscally conservative politics of BC United.
- Federally, this riding is an NDP dead zone - they barely broke double digits here in 2021. Provincially, they fare quite a bit better and have cracked 20% in every election since 2013. One of the most highly educated ridings in the province, the thing to watch here is how the affluent, university-degree holding federal Liberals break.
- Karin Kirkpatrick, a staunch federal Liberal herself, is hoping to win them over. To do that, she’ll have to work magic in the Capilano Highlands, which, unlike other portions of the riding, gives the federal Liberals healthy margins in federal elections. Federal Liberals alone won’t be enough, however - she’ll have to win over some federal Conservatives as well, especially with Poilievre riding high in the polls.
- The Conservatives have chosen Lynne Block, a school trustee in the West Vancouver School District. A stronger candidate than the previously nominated Aubichon, Block’s higher profile and the NDP’s housing policies could help her consolidate the traditional elements of the free-enterprise coalition behind her, no matter if they be Liberal or Conservative federally. To win, she’ll have to hold off Kirkpatrick in federal Conservative neighbourhoods like British Properties (previously a racially exclusionary community) and in the West Bay.
- The NDP’s Sara Eftekhar hopes to take advantage of the riding’s Persian population - the highest of any riding in the province. Given the circumstances in which the previous BC United nominee, Caroline Elliott was given the nomination, there may be some resentment towards Falcon’s machinations among the community.
- Last thing to keep an eye on are the Greens. Given the riding’s pristine beauty and high incomes, it makes sense for there to be a bit of a “Tesla Tory” dynamic here. They scored above 15% here in both 2017 and 2020, and given how the BC Liberals tumbled by 11% in between 2013 and 2017 when the Greens fielded a candidate, they could be competing for votes with Kirkpatrick.
- With the provincewide race coming down to the wire, West Vancouver-Capilano is absolutely a riding to watch. Block may be favoured just due to the broader split among the centre and centre-left with no less than three candidates competing for that pool of votes, but if the NDP succeeds in tying Block to her more socially conservative brethren across the province, an upset could be in the works.
Hugh Chan is a second year student at UBC studying International Relations and Data Science. You can find more coverage of the 2024 BC election as well as politics across East Asia and the Anglosphere at https://x.com/shxnhugh.
