Well, woe is us, eh?
We went to war, of sorts, overnight. And with our best customer, no less, because its best customer, us, was being treated like a pariah state. We will wreck each other’s economy now, with perverse jubilation.
Lost, really lost, in the Tuesday tariff tumult was an annual event normally the centre of our attention. It was not the focal point this time, so let’s shed some light. Some, but not much, because what we got is not what we will get.
The BC NDP provincial budget is hard to put in proper context, so swamped were its highlights Tuesday by the imposition of U.S. tariffs (25 per cent generally, 10 per cent on energy), the retaliatory Canadian tariffs ($30 billion today, much more later), not to mention the latest on the federal Liberal leadership race ending Sunday, and the anticipation of an election as early as next month.
So uncertain is B.C.’s plan, it is barely worth the pixels, because so uncertain is the guy behind the desk in the Oval Office. The budget document would have been better four weeks ago to set the fiscal framework when we knew tariffs were coming, or four weeks from now to reset that framework for what we know tariffs were causing.
As it is, we’re dealing with a document born without breath. It guesses the deficit will rise by nearly $2 billion to a record $10.9 billion this fiscal year. B.C.’s unemployment could rise to 6.4 per cent this year from 2024’s 5.4 per cent and might go up to 6.7 per cent next year because it is possible the province would lose 45,000 jobs by 2029. There are $4 billion in annual contingencies for what may happen. All this, thanks to one guy.
In outlining its anti-bullying policy, the David Eby government is bringing a pea-shooter to the cannonade, but bringing it with some bravado nevertheless. “All bets are off,” the premier said in announcing a buy-Canadian plan, specifically a buy-B.C. effort, in responding to the tariff assault. We, too, are tearing up the free-trade deal.
He’s following through with penalizing so-called red states (in the U.S. red is Republican, blue is Democrat, unlike Canada’s blue Conservatives and red Liberals) by taking their liquor products off our shelves. Napa Valley wine is marginally better for you than Kentucky bourbon, anyway, so consider this a caring gesture.
But seriously, B.C. is ill-equipped to contend with the economic forces Donald Trump said he would use to annex Canada and make Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre not only the 24th prime minister but, in time, our first governor. Eby admits they’re bigger than us – and he’s six-foot-seven – but we won’t go down without a fight.
But how much of a fight is there in anything already weakened?
Our economy has been treated in eight years by the NDP government as a side hustle: surplus turned to deficit, public sector padding, affordability a cruel taunt. Tuesday we were treated to a farrago of conjecture on what might ensue in the weeks and months and, pray, not years.
And again, as it has been and been and been, there is no evidence of a plan to develop an economy with predictable prosperity imminently. Nothing to make the tax climate more competitive, nothing to ease unaffordability – unless those contingencies are sprinkled on us. Even the reannounced 18 energy projects, long stuck in Red Tape City, that will now qualify for swift permitting presumably face negotiations with First Nations – or abrogation of a promise. Speaking of walking away from a commitment, that $1,000 grocery rebate of yesteryear campaigning is officially out, but a $110 rebate for most drivers is in.
Eby noted that there are sectoral advisory groups helping him work through his defence of the province. “The conversations that we never thought we would have, we’re having them today.” But they were conversations he needed to have long before now, as he must be realizing, because the tariffs aren't all that's ailing our economy.
The budget from Brenda Bailey, his new finance minister, didn’t exactly stop the BC NDP’s runaway spending train. There is $10 billion in additional spending over three years, tariffs or not, and an attempt to shave a whopping $300 million in efficiencies off a measly $95 billion in spending – oops, sorry, got those adjectives reversed. Not exactly Elon Musk’s DOGE. More like DODGE.
Kirk LaPointe is vice-president, office of the chairman, at Fulmer & Company. He is a Glacier Media columnist with an extensive background in journalism.
