Yes, at times, the truth hurts.
But in this swirl of conflicting COVID-19 information, the truth from the federal government would help, even if it hurts, even if it carries uncertainty, even if it changes.
Two tough questions are unaddressed well into this crisis: How many pandemic fatalities might we expect in Canada? How long might social-distancing and isolation last? On fatalities, Justin Trudeau says Ottawa is still compiling data; on distancing, he says to expect “weeks and perhaps months.”
As we await the “how many” answers from Ottawa, some provinces have outflanked it with local information. Still, it is not the clarity we need into the fourth full week of national shutdown. Just as many other countries have mobilized relief faster, so have they mobilized their best truths of the moment.
We can accept how truth shifts at a second’s notice. This is a pivotal time and a time of pivots. But in the absence of clear data and dates, even just clear estimates and ranges, people resort to speculation. Even a dire projection is often not as bad as what the mind might speculate.
There is an emerging pattern of hedging and lecturing in the prime minister’s daily direction to the country. Unlike the U.S. president, he wisely chooses not to assume the mantel of the country’s medical officer. But when he concedes that wearing a face mask is somewhat helpful, he then worries we think wearing one permits us to leave isolation or takes us off the hook from social distancing. He offers a wage subsidy to business, but repeatedly scolds them not to cheat when they apply for it. He reveals a basic income support and then warns people it’ll be pulled back if they sneak some work in.
Thus, I suspect, the reason we don’t have federal numbers of projected fatalities or timelines or benchmarks on how we can emerge from hibernation. It’s difficult to know if Trudeau doesn’t trust the people he governs with the truth, but part of managing a crisis is a leader’s responsibility to manage expectations and not leave vague threads loose to interpretation. Human behaviour is funky. A new study in Italy found that people were less likely to obey social-distance requirements if the government set a timeline it kept extending. In other words, it’s better to paint a conservative timeline and beat it. People prefer that you don’t short-change the truth. Academic research backs this up: there is little effect on public trust in authority, even when it is uncertain, provided there is openness and transparency about that.
It would be extremely unpopular after four weeks in near-lockdown to say we will need to be indoors until July, but in not doing so, Trudeau is building expectations we might be roaming in May. He was more open Wednesday about how the situation might evolve, but he has yet to be expansive on his vision of the country’s repair.
In praising B.C. for flattening the curve, Trudeau is building expectations that we won’t be hit hard. Flattening the curve certainly saves lives but doesn’t shorten the pandemic. It actually means that it will stretch longer – that in reducing the spread we are also staggering the cases so as not to overwhelm our health system. Is our prime minister preparing us with timelines for that?
The health crisis is not our only one, of course. The economic crisis, depending on your vantage point, is just as or even more significant. Again, the Trudeau government is sending mixed messages to keep a lid on the disquiet.
It is suggesting that emergency income and wage support programs are there for three or four months, rather than a more realistic target of six to eight. It is even suggesting that businesses whose revenue is not down 15% in March from a year ago and 30% in April and beyond can weather those three or four months without wage subsidies. That calculation wouldn’t hold up unless a business had hoarded cash it is prepared to burn through.
What we can already tell, though, is that while the economic system is not broken, it is not going to bounce back swiftly. Elements of our economy – the ones in which we gather in busy places – are going to play on the human psyche for some time to prevent their revival. Is the prime minister preparing us for that?
We would be better to get a lot of “if, then” options. As in: if we reach a certain caseload, then we will do this, and if our economic indices reach a certain level, then we will do this.
The fight we are in is a long one. Let’s admit that, define that, and get on with that.
Kirk LaPointe is publisher and editor-in-chief of Business in Vancouver and vice-president, editorial, of Glacier Media.
