Vancouver can expect to see 60,000 new jobs created over the next four years, despite some indicators of economic cooling, according to a new BMO Financial Group report.
Vancouver’s economy outperformed the rest of B.C. in 2012’s first quarter – marked by a 2.8% increase in employment – according to the report by Sherry Cooper, chief economist for BMO Financial Group.
“The Vancouver labour market is performing well, with employment rising 2.8% year over year in the first quarter, while the jobless rate has fallen to 6.6%, below both provincial and national averages,” Cooper said.
The B.C. economy has cooled and is predicted to post slower GDP growth this year – 2.3%, compared with 2.9% in 2011. But the longer-term projections over four years are for stronger growth.
Population growth has slowed in B.C., although Vancouver’s growth through international immigration is well above the national and provincial averages.
Average house prices were down 3.1% year-over-year in March, compared with a 20% increase a year ago, and home sales are 10% below the 10-year average. Non-residential construction has also tapered off from peak levels prior to the 2010 Winter Olympics.
The condo market has led new building activity, with more than 15,000 units under construction in February, up 32% year-over-year.
Slowing demand for lumber in China is expected to reduce B.C. lumber export numbers this year, but that is in comparison to an unusual spike in demand in 2011. Lumber exports to China spiked 61% to more than $1 billion last year.
The one sector that promises to drive job growth over the next four years is a proposed twinning of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline, which would add 550,000 barrels per day of capacity, according to the BMO report.
In an effort to boost investment in Canada, BMO is making $10 billion available in loans to Canadian businesses.
Derral Moriyama, BMO’s senior vice-president of commercial banking for Greater Vancouver, said, “We believe that now is the time for businesses to review their growth plans, and our commitment to make an additional $10 billion in credit available is a reflection of our confidence in the economy and opportunities for businesses in Vancouver and B.C.”
