Incumbent:
Don Davies (New Democratic | 2008)
Candidates:
Liberal: Amy Gill
Conservative: Ravinder Bhatia
New Democratic: Don Davies
Green: Imtiaz Popat
People’s: Fiona Wang
2021 Results:
New Democratic - 50 per cent
Liberal - 29 per cent
Conservative - 14 per cent
Green - four per cent
People’s - two per cent
An NDP seat since 2006, Vancouver Kingsway has always been the less safe of the two NDP strongholds in east Vancouver. Rather than being powered by white progressive renters around the Broadway corridor, the riding’s NDP strength is a product of what’s been uncharitably nicknamed the “Kingsway NDP mafia,” a network of blue-collar labour, lunch bucket organizers and the appeal of five-term MP Don Davies among the diverse communities in the riding.
Before Davies fortified the seat, it was long a swing riding between the Liberals and the New Democrats. The NDP held the seat for much of the 1970s and 1980s during the heyday of organized labour, but the Liberals flipped it for the 1990s and a good chunk of the 2000s with strong appeal among the riding’s ethnic minorities. Provincially, Kensington and Kingsway fell to the BC Liberals in Gordon Campbell’s 2001 sweep, but not before Adrian Dix got to developing the party’s outreach strategy among new immigrants from Vietnam, China and the Philippines. By 2005, the BC NDP retook the seat as part of a provincewide resurgence. Davies combined the party’s rekindled appeal there with his roots as a Teamsters labour lawyer, and was able to ride voter anger at Liberal David Emerson’s floor-crossing to Harper’s Conservatives to take the win in 2008.
Almost two decades removed from his first race, Davies is now in for the fight of his life against the Liberals. Having previously considered well-known housing advocate Russil Wvong, the Grits ultimately went with Amy Gill, an accountant and chief financial officer for the Vancouver Chinatown Foundation. The Liberals have some residual strength here among the Chinese community around Renfrew Heights, and Sajjan fared well in a corner of Vancouver South between 41st and 49th Avenue, from Main to Knight, that was just added to the riding. To win though, Gill will have to crack the NDP advantage in white, progressive neighbourhoods like South Cambie and around Trout Lake, along with Davies’ name recognition among the Filipino community along Kingsway to the riding’s southeast.
With Kingsway a genuine battleground for the first time since 2008, the Conservatives could end up playing spoiler here – rather than pose a genuine threat, Ravinder Bhatia could hoover up some otherwise anti-NDP votes that the Liberals need to oust Davies. Gill will have to rally voters in Renfrew Heights, hold onto Sajjan’s support south of 41st, and slash into the NDP’s margins among white progressive areas north of Kingsway and west of Fraser. Davies will have to hope that he’s worked hard enough to defy the national headwinds blowing against his party.
Hugh Chan is a UBC student specializing in international relations and data science.
