Fraser Valley's largest city set to outpace Metro Vancouver

Most Vancouverites might think of Abbotsford primarily for its agriculture and airshow, but the Fraser Valley's largest city is poised to outgrow Metro Vancouver in several respects over the next few years.
According to the Conference Board of Canada's Summer Metropolitan Outlook, the Mission-Abbotsford region is expected to see stronger gains than Metro Vancouver in total employment, personal income per capita and retail sales between now and 2016.
The biggest differences will be over the next couple years. Abbotsford is forecast to see a 3.5% gain in jobs this year and a further 3.1% gain in 2013. Personal income is expected to rise 4.1% this year and 3.4% next year. And retail sales are expected to jump 5% this year and a further 4.9% next year.
By comparison, Metro Vancouver is forecast to have a tepid 0.8% increase in jobs this year and 2.6% next year. Vancouver's average personal income, while higher than Abbotsford's, will increase 1.4% this year and 3.3% next year. Retail sales are forecast to rise 3.7% this year and 4.9% next year.
Abbotsford's gains come on the heels of some challenging years in the wake of the global financial crisis. The region's manufacturing sector has continued to suffer from reduced demand and a strong Canadian dollar. After falling 7.8% in 2008 and 13.4% in 2009, manufacturing in the region has barely recovered the lost activity. It grew only 1.8% in 2010 and 1.4% last year. The conference board forecasts this year's growth to be only 1.2% and doesn't expect the sector to recover from its 2008-09 losses before 2016.
But the region's construction, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing and primary and utilities sectors have continued to post strong gains by comparison. That's helped boost the region's employment and bolstered the retail sector, which is expected to see solid gains until 2016.
But challenges will still remain for the region. Construction is predicted to be slower, primarily because of a reduction in non-residential activity. The report noted gains will need to come from residential construction, which are expected to remain below average until 2015. •