Welcome to the January edition of The Month in Pipeline News.
It’s been a dizzying ride and, depending on your perspective, either giddy or gruelling.
Let’s look at the latest:
1. The province expressed its opposition, at least for the time being, to Kinder Morgan’s proposed twinning and tripling of capacity at its Trans Mountain pipeline. Its much-publicized five project support conditions are not fulfilled. It appears this issue might resolve itself if the federal government and the company can work through some spill safety details, but an important ally for Kinder Morgan is for the time being an adversary.
2. The federal environment commissioner – yes, you anti-oil activists, even though we now have a Liberal government, she had been there under the Conservatives – found inadequate National Energy Board (NEB) tracking of the petroleum sector’s compliance with approval provisions and emergency measures. It appears these audit issues are setting the stage for an NEB reboot, promised during the recent campaign and integral to the Liberal occupation of what had been an NDP/Green base.
3. Denis Coderre, the mayor of Montreal, came out against the Energy East pipeline and has enraged resource-sector supporters stretching as far west as Naheed Nenshi, his Calgary counterpart.
4. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Coderre met. No selfies were taken, but the two appear to have worked out a plan to let the federal dog wag the municipal tail. Better behaviour is promised by the mayor. I am not the first to notice that Coderre was conspicuously chided compared to his Vancouver counterpart, Gregor Robertson, an unflinching Trans Mountain project critic. Whether drinking water or windsurfing water, the mayors have the safety of their citizens at heart – and the safety of knowing others hold ultimate political authority and accountability.
5. The Trudeau government last week released some strong smoke signals on the environmental review process. It’s not exactly back to the drawing board, but NEB decisions on Trans Mountain and Energy East will be stalled – until year’s end in the former case, 2018 in the latter – while Ottawa builds some new project review standards.
The Kinder Morgan team must be shaking its head, if not in its boots.
The most credible directive is to “meaningfully” consult First Nations on projects. While I surmise the courts will figure out the weight of that word, it is the best language yet on what long ago should have been a national mission of respect and partnership. But it’s easier said and written than done and delivered.
The most challenging directive accepts the environmentalist stance that such projects need to be assessed for “upstream” emissions – namely, those associated with oil production itself. In doing so, the federal government is building a convenient escape hatch for what has been some ambiguity on the issue.
And, in case you didn’t notice, the goalposts have moved yet again on how the darned science intersects with commercial ambition, just when Kinder Morgan seemed to be within range of a score.
Trudeau has been trying to reconcile his future vision for the green economy that could flourish under him with his current vista of a resource economy that could founder under him – one step forward, one step to the side, kind of thing.
These interim measures don’t return Kinder Morgan or others to the starting line, but they do make the finish line harder to cross.
A federal ministerial appointee will be attached to the Burnaby Mountain file to ensure the measures are addressed. Talk about lack of trust. Before that will be a first ministers’ meeting on climate change. Talk about rubbing salt in the wound.
In short, the odds are not improving for the project, no matter the sensible economic benefit and the slight spill risk.
Many days for Kinder Morgan, Burnaby Mountain must feel like quite the uphill climb. •
Kirk LaPointe is Business in Vancouver’s vice-president of audience and business development.
