Fossil fuel-focused British Columbia and Canada risk being left out of a global shift to renewable energy that could be led by the world’s second-largest economy, China.
That was the message from Amory Lovins, an American scientist and co-founder of the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), who was in Vancouver last week to speak at the Globe 2014 conference.
In his 2011 book, Reinventing Fire, Lovins outlined an economic shift away from fossil fuels that wouldn’t wreck the economy. The book also makes the case that government subsidies make fossil fuels appear to be cheaper than they are.
“[The book showed] how to run a 2.6-fold bigger U.S. economy in 2050 with no oil, no coal, no nuclear energy, a third less natural gas, tripled end-use efficiency, three-quarters renewable supply and 82% to 86% lower carbon emissions,” Lovins told Business in Vancouver.
“And we found that this would cost $5 trillion less than business as usual ... it would require no new inventions and no act of Congress but could be led by business, for profit.”
Sound far-fetched? Perhaps you need to put on your carbon thinking cap, a prop Lovins used during his talk.
“He makes a very persuasive argument that fossil fuel demand will decline, and there are profit-making incentives that will drive that behaviour,” said Eva Busza, vice-president of research at the Asia Pacific Foundation, which hosted the March 24 talk.
One of those incentives can be found in many of the major cities of China, such as Beijing, which regularly has dangerous levels of air pollution. Lovins has been working with a team of around 40 people from RMI and three other organizations to develop a Reinventing Fire template for China. His goal for that policy work is lofty: he hopes it will be incorporated into China’s next five-year plan, which will cover 2015 to 2020.
Lovins pointed out that China is currently the world leader in deploying renewable energy and leads in making or deploying seven renewable technologies, including wind and solar.
“Although these policies have been successful, they were not part of an economically explicit grand strategy, which we’re helping now to develop,” he said.
If the Chinese government adopts RMI’s model, Busza said it could serve as a case study for other nations.
“We’ll really see if the Chinese can achieve what he thinks they can achieve,” she said. “If that’s the case, then his projections in terms of fossil fuel replacement by renewables and by energy efficiency are very powerful.”
Lovins is dismissive of the Canadian government’s focus on the oil industry, calling the Alberta oilsands a bubble.
“It is extraordinarily expensive and extraordinarily at risk from any dip in oil price or increase in capital intensity or cost to capital.”
He thinks B.C. is arriving too late to the liquefied natural gas industry, with markets already well established in countries like Japan.
The province’s proposed Site C dam is also ill-advised, according to Lovins, who has studied B.C.’s potential to develop renewable energy.
“I was astounded to hear there was talk of reviving Site C, which was grossly uncompetitive 20 years ago and must be worse now,” Lovins said.
Bill Bennett, B.C.’s minister for energy and mines, attended the talk and said Lovins’ ideas were thought-provoking, but he believes that Site C is likely still the best solution for the province’s future energy needs.
“I’ve been advised that Site C is the best way to generate 1,100 megawatts,” said Bennett. “But there are other options.”
