Imagine a federal election in Canada at a time when fewer than a third of Canadians rated the country’s economic conditions as “very good” or “good” and where almost half of residents referred to their own personal finances as “poor” or “very poor.” It would be safe to assume that the opposition would manage to be seen as a better financial steward, facilitating the decimation of the incumbent government.
This is not the case in 2025. Our latest look at the country’s financial standing shows just 29 per cent of Canadians (down three points since February) expressing confidence in Canada’s financial standing, and 48 per cent (up two points) who are dissatisfied with their own situation.
When these same Canadians are asked if the country’s main political leaders can be trusted to do the right thing to help the economy, Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney reaches 59 per cent, while Official Opposition and Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre checks in at 43 per cent (down two points).
In January 2024, August 2024 and February 2025, Poilievre held a substantial advantage over then-prime minister Justin Trudeau on economic management. The lead has evaporated in the middle of an election campaign, and with a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor effectively surpassing him.
In previous surveys, we have seen how much the presidency of Donald Trump is affecting the perceptions of Canadians. Canada-U.S. relations was the most important issue for 31 per cent of likely voters earlier this month, rising to 40 per cent among those aged 55 and over—traditionally the demographic that votes the most.
Conservative supporters could take solace in the fact that Poilievre’s economic message is resonating with Canadians aged 18-34, who gravitated towards his party before the year began hoping for a solution to the housing crisis. Still, there is a severe gender gap. While 58 per cent of women trust Carney on finances, only 37 per cent feel the same way about Poilievre.
A look at our collective economic concerns also helps explain why Carney—who can wear the mantle of “change” even as a representative from the governing party—is connecting better than Poilievre. For the first time this year, majorities of Canadians say they have worried “frequently” or “occasionally” about the safety or their savings (55 per cent, up 12 points) and the value of their investments (also 55 per cent, up eight points).
Canadians aged 35-54 are slightly more likely to be worried about savings and investments than their older and younger counterparts, but they are not looking at Poilievre as a problem-solver. More middle-aged Canadians express confidence in Carney (56 per cent) than in the Conservative leader (45 per cent).
The inflation question also shows the impact of policy-making decisions across both sides of the 49th parallel. Three in four Canadians (75 per cent, down three points) expect to pay more for a week’s worth of groceries and seven in ten (70 per cent, down one point) foresee higher prices for new cars. The cancellation of the consumer portion of the carbon tax is being felt by many respondents. In February, 78 per cent of Canadians expected to pay more for gasoline. This month, the proportion has fallen by 26 points to 52 per cent.
There is still some pessimism about economic conditions, with more than two in five Canadians (43 per cent, down five points) expecting a further decline, 31 per cent (unchanged) foreseeing no changes and only 16 per cent (up one point) believing that the situation will improve. Ontario is home to the largest proportion of residents (21 per cent) who think we are due for a bounce. British Columbians and Atlantic Canadians are on the other side of the spectrum (11 per cent and nine per cent respectively).
The federal election campaign began, whether participants like it or not, as a referendum on which leader would be the best to take on Trump. This preoccupation made solidly ideological voters—from the environmentally friendly Green Party supporters in southern Vancouver Island to retired rural dreamers of sovereignty who have backed the Bloc Québécois since the mid 1990s—to seriously consider voting for the Liberals.
Poilievre shined in comparison with the unpopular Trudeau on economic management, but has now seen Carney—who had been on the job for less than a month when this survey was conducted—surpass him. The final weeks of the campaign may provide an opportunity for a reset, something the Conservative campaign desperately needs. We will have to wait to see if Poilievre is the right person to provide a message of hope and strength to Canadians of all ages.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted from April 7-9, 2025, among 1,002 adults in Canada. The data has been statistically weighted according to census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
