As the federal election campaign continues, the latest Research Co. poll shows the governing Liberal Party with an eight-point lead over the opposition Conservative Party at the national level among decided voters (44 per cent to 36 per cent).
The remaining contenders are in single digits: the New Democratic Party at eight per cent, the Bloc Québécois at five per cent, the Green Party at three per cent and the People’s Party at one per cent.
The Liberals have gained three points since late March, while the Conservatives and the New Democrats have lost one. Support for the Liberals among decided voters reaches 51 per cent in Atlantic Canada, 48 per cent in Ontario and 44 per cent in British Columbia. We need to go back to the original Trudeaumania in 1968 to find a level of support this high for the Liberals in B.C. (42 per cent).
In Quebec, the Bloc is now in third place with 19 per cent, as decided voters coalesce around the two federalist options: the Liberals (47 per cent) and the Conservatives (22 per cent).
Canada-U.S. Relations continues to galvanize the electorate, with 31 per cent of likely voters (up one point) saying it is the most important issue facing the country—higher than the economy and jobs (19 per cent, down one point); housing, homelessness and poverty (18 per cent, up one point); and health care (11 per cent, up two points).
Prime Minister and Liberal Leader Mark Carney heads to the final weeks of the campaign with an approval rating of 58 per cent (up one point). The numbers are lower for Official Opposition and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (44 per cent, down two points), NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (40 per cent, up two points), Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault (25 per cent, down five points), Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet (also 25 per cent, unchanged) and People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier (22 per cent, down three points).
Carney has also extended his advantage on the “Best Prime Minister” question, where he is now 14 points ahead of Poilievre (43 per cent to 29 per cent, with Singh a distant third at nine per cent). Carney also posts a momentum score of +14, with 36 per cent of likely voters saying their opinion of the Liberal leader has improved since the start of the campaign. The other five contenders are in negative territory, with more than a third of likely voters (35 per cent) saying their view of Poilievre has worsened.
When asked which one of the two main party leaders is better suited to handle 10 issues, Carney is definitively ahead of Poilievre on seven:
- Canada-U.S. Relations (49 per cent to 29 per cent), foreign affairs (46 per cent to 30 per cent);
- The economy and jobs (46 per cent to 32 per cent); accountability and leadership (44 per cent to 32 per cent);
- Health care (43 per cent to 28 per cent);
- The environment (42 per cent to 26 per cent);
- And housing, homelessness and poverty (41 per cent to 31 per cent).
The two candidates are closer to each other on three other issues:
- Crime and public safety (Poilievre 36 per cent, Carney 34 per cent);
- Energy and pipelines (Carney 38 per cent, Poilievre 37 per cent);
- And immigration (Carney 37 per cent, Poilievre 36 per cent).
There is also movement on the financial management question, where Poilievre was ahead of Justin Trudeau last year and in January. Three in five likely voters (60 per cent, up two points) say they are comfortable with Carney being in charge of Canada’s economy, while fewer than half (46 per cent, down three points) feel the same way about the Conservative leader.
While we still have plenty of campaign activity left, including the televised debates, some voters have made up their minds about who not to back. More than half of likely voters say there is nothing Singh or Poilievre can do or say (54 per cent and 51 per cent, respectively) to make them vote for their respective parties. Only 43 per cent of Canadians say they would not be swayed to vote Liberal by anything Carney says or does.
There is a data point that is worth exploring. While only five per cent of likely voters in our survey were undecided, the proportion rises to eight per cent among those who supported the New Democrats in 2021. It might not seem like much, but only two per cent of likely voters who backed the Liberals or the Conservatives in 2021 are currently not sure about who to support. Where these undecided former New Democrats go on election day will define the size of the party’s caucus in Ottawa.
In British Columbia, where the New Democrats won 13 of the 42 seats at stake in 2021, three in five voters (60 per cent) would not cast a ballot for the NDP in 2025 compared with 43 per cent who express a similar view of the Liberals. Unless the New Democrats can revert this trend at the local level, federal seats switching from “orange” to “red” or “blue” in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island could go from possibility to reality.
Mario Canseco is president of Research Co.
Results are based on an online survey conducted on April 5 and April 6, 2025, among a representative sample of 1,007 likely voters in Canada, including 956 decided voters in the 2025 federal election. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region in Canada. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.1 percentage points for likely voters and +/- 3.2 percentage points for decided voters, 19 times out of 20.
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