Since 2011’s second quarter (Q2), net international migration to B.C. has increasingly been offset by a growing outflow of migrants to other regions of Canada.
Data for Q2 2012 show that while 10,065 immigrants came to B.C. in the quarter, there was a net outflow of 1,196 people from B.C. to other regions in Canada.
Although seemingly small, this outflow represents the fourth straight quarter that an outflow has been registered. The net outflow of 2,479 residents in Q1 2012 represented the largest quarterly out-migration the province has seen since Q1 2003, a time during which prolonged (and high) levels of out-migration and slow economic growth characterized the province.
While GDP is traditionally used as the primary indicator of overall economic performance, the picture it paints for provinces typically lags several quarters (provincial chained 2002 dollar GDP data have not yet been released for 2011).
More timely assessments of provincial economic conditions typically consider changes in employment levels, construction activity, retail spending or consumer and business sentiment.
Interestingly, migration flows – while less frequently quoted – are a good leading indicator of change in provincial economic activity.
The history of interprovincial migration and relative economic performance between B.C. and Canada (measured simply as B.C.’s GDP growth rate minus Canada’s) shows that the two data series have moved in the same direction over the past three decades.
It’s within this context that the past four quarters of outflows are important to B.C.’s residents, businesses and government.
For example, in the wake of a volatile economic period in the early- to mid-1980s that followed a second wave of oil price shocks in the late-1970s, Q1 1987 marked the beginning of a significant and sustained net inflow of migrants to B.C. from other parts of Canada.
From the beginning of 1987 to the end of 1997 an average of almost 29,100 more people moved annually from other provinces in Canada to B.C. than in the other direction.
These significant net inflows were associated with a period of strong growth in B.C.’s economy relative to Canada as a whole: annual real GDP growth in B.C. over this decade averaged 3.2% versus only 2.4% Canada-wide.
With few barriers to mobility, B.C. residents began packing the U-Haul toward the end of the 1990s: from early 1998 to the end of 2003 an average of 10,700 more people moved from B.C. to other provinces annually than moved to B.C. from them.
This period of out-migration coincided with a dip in economic growth in B.C.: its 2.6% annual GDP growth paled in comparison with the 3.6% seen Canada-wide.
From 2004 to the end of 2009, B.C.’s economy fared relatively well compared with Canada’s. Growth in B.C.’s real GDP averaged 2.4% relative to national growth of 1.8%.
With B.C. faring better than average through the 2008 credit crisis and 2009 recession, it’s not surprising that interprovincial migration remained positive up to the end of 2009.
Annual interprovincial migration to B.C. averaged 7,300 people between 2004 and the end of 2009.
Over the five-year period, almost 51,300 more people moved to B.C. from other provinces than vice versa.
Early 2010, however, marked another transition.
GDP data show that economic activity in B.C. fell below the national average in 2010. The province’s economy grew by 3% versus a Canada-wide average of 3.2%.
While still positive, interprovincial migration slowed significantly through late 2009 and early 2010.
It fell from more than 3,600 in the first half of 2010 to only 2,500 through the second half. More importantly, the decline continued and, for the first time since Q2 2003, moved into negative territory in 2011.
The first two quarters of 2012 were also negative, marking the first time since 2001-02 that B.C. has recorded four consecutive quarters of interprovincial outflows.
When considered regionally, annual data for 2011 show that net interprovincial migration to the Lower Mainland has also fallen to a decade low: only 100 people moved to the region from other provinces in 2011. This compares with net immigration to the region of more than 27,000 in 2011.
On the one hand, these data show that international migration is increasingly driving population growth provincially and regionally.
Perhaps more importantly, the migration data might ultimately point to below-average economic growth for the province in 2011 and 2012. •
